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The world’s poorest people are on the front lines of climate change – yet they’re often an afterthought in climate policy. Nobel Prize-winning economist Esther Duflo joins Climate Curious co-host Ben Hurst to unpack why climate resilience begins with those who have contributed least to climate change, and what a more effective approach looks like. Drawing on decades of research and her work at the The Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL), Esther argues for climate resilience solutions rooted in evidence Recorded live at TED Countdown 2025.
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Created by TEDxLondon
Executive produced by Josie Colter
Produced by Ben Beheshty
Curated by Deesha Chandra
Hosted by Maryam Pasha and Ben Hurst
Communications by Tara Cooper and Issey Gladston
00:00 Introduction to climate change and poverty
00:46 Sneak peek into the talk
01:21 Understanding economics and poverty
03:38 The impact of climate change on poverty
10:08 Personal journey and motivation
12:25 The Role of The Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL)
13:56 Climate adaptation strategies
17:40 The calue of time and effort over money
17:58 Scaling up sustainable land productivity
18:37 Challenges in implementing climate solutions
19:14 Addressing Just Transition for poor communities
20:26 Global emissions and the need for fair compensation
20:51 The role of wealthy nations and corporations
21:42 The importance of immediate climate action
28:48 Effective financial support for climate resilience
34:03 Concluding thoughts and future directions
Introduction to climate change and poverty
[00:00:00] Esther Duflo: The poor people in the world contribute exactly nothing to climate change. I’m looking 10, 20, 30 years ahead. I have to find a way to make people aware that poor people in the world are the prime victims of climate change [00:00:15] and we have to do something to deal with it.
[00:00:16] Ben Hurst: This is Climate Curious, the podcast for people who are bored, scared.
[00:00:21] Ben Hurst: All confused by climate change.
[00:00:23] Maryam Pasha: I’m Marion Pasha, the director and curator at Telex London, and the co-host of this podcast alongside the amazing Ben. [00:00:30]
[00:00:30] Ben Hurst: Hi, I’m Ben Hurst, activist and advocate exploring what positive masculinities can look like and self-confessed climate normie.
[00:00:41] Ben Hurst: Esther, thank you so much for joining us. [00:00:45]
[00:00:45] Esther Duflo: Thank you for having me.
Sneak Peek into the Talk
[00:00:46] Ben Hurst: Uh, we are here in Nairobi at Ted Countdown. You are, you are speaking. Can you give us a sneak peek? Maybe the answer is no, but can you give us a sneak peek of what you’re gonna be talking about later on?
[00:00:56] Esther Duflo: In two World, it’s about climate justice, loss and damages and [00:01:00] how to pay for it and spend it.
[00:01:01] Ben Hurst: Okay, so loss and damages, which is important. I feel like that’s a recurring theme in some of these episodes, but loss and damage fund, big deal. If you haven’t listened, tune into one of the other episodes and you’ll get a little bit of an overview, but also, I’m sure we’re gonna cover it [00:01:15] in detail in this interview.
[00:01:17] Ben Hurst: I’ve got two questions before we start, which might get cut. I don’t know.
Understanding Economics and Poverty
[00:01:21] Ben Hurst: The first one is, what was MIT? Like? Is it like in, in the movies? Like, I feel like I’ve seen MIT and Ironman and stuff, but I don’t know if it’s like super technological in real life.
[00:01:32] Esther Duflo: I, I think it’s quite technological in real life.
[00:01:34] Esther Duflo: Uh, but it involves maybe technology at the level at which we’re doing it involves more blackboards than Right, right, right, right. But, uh, okay. But we are, I think [00:01:45] as an institute, we still kind of invent the solutions of tomorrow. Okay. And actually try to get them to the work quickly. Mm-hmm. The motto of MIT is.
[00:01:55] Esther Duflo: Mens and manners, which is the spirit and the hand. Okay. So we are not just [00:02:00] there in cyberspace, we are also trying to get very close to people.
[00:02:03] Ben Hurst: Okay. So not just the hypotheticals, but also the practical element of it.
[00:02:06] Esther Duflo: Very much so.
[00:02:07] Ben Hurst: And less robot arms and more whiteboards and or blackboards. Yeah.
[00:02:10] Esther Duflo: And some economics too.
[00:02:12] Ben Hurst: Okay. Uh, right. And that was my second question is I [00:02:15] feel like whenever we talk about economics, I’m supposed to know what we’re talking about and I always pretend that I know what that is, but just. Human be for a second. What exactly is an economist? What? What do you do for work? Or how does that work?
[00:02:29] Ben Hurst: [00:02:30] Like in my mind it’s just numbers and like balancing books and stuff, but obviously that’s an accountant, so we’re talking about something different.
[00:02:37] Esther Duflo: That’s certainly what most people imagine when they think of an economist. Mm-hmm. Usually a man, white man in a [00:02:45] Thai, on television talking about inflation.
[00:02:48] Esther Duflo: Right. Or uh. Um, tariffs, maybe tariff, tariffs, maybe just days. But in reality, the economics profession as its practice in academia is very, very, very diverse. Okay. So economics is pretty [00:03:00] much like everything human being do. Um, go. So the, the, the topic of conversion session and, and inquiry range from poverty, which is what I do.
[00:03:10] Esther Duflo: Mm-hmm. Climate, um, discrimination, labor [00:03:15] markets, effectiveness of public policy. Mm-hmm. Health insurance. And yes, inflation and tariffs are part of it too. Okay. But, uh, just a small parts
[00:03:23] Ben Hurst: trying to escape the tariffs. Yeah. Um, and your, uh, I mean, it’s not every day you get to speak to a, a Nobel Prize winner.[00:03:30]
[00:03:30] Ben Hurst: Your, your, your Nobel winning work is all about using scientific methods to study and reduce. Poverty. Right.
The Impact of Climate Change on Poverty
[00:03:38] Ben Hurst: So, and this is like, I always find the poverty conversation so interesting ’cause I’ve heard it described as a wicked problem, but also climate is described as a wicked problem. So we talk about two massive things that really do touch every area of people’s lives.
[00:03:52] Ben Hurst: Um, what does your work say, or what does your research say about the impact of climate change on poverty? Are those two things, [00:04:00] like in your mind, inextricably linked to they, like, do they come together as a package or does one clearly impact the other in a specific way?
[00:04:07] Esther Duflo: Yeah, that’s a, that’s a, I think the heart of the, of the matter today.
[00:04:12] Esther Duflo: So I’ve been working on, on poverty, [00:04:15] and by poverty I mean global poverty. Mm-hmm. The, the life of the very poorest people in the world. Mm-hmm. From my entire career and my work has really been focused about transforming this wicked problem, as you say, into a zillions, [00:04:30] tractable issues. Okay. Which is really what it is, but we usually don’t like to see it this way.
[00:04:35] Esther Duflo: And once we. Remove kind of the big capital P of poverty.
[00:04:40] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:04:40] Esther Duflo: And instead we think about, oh, how, what do we do to get kids into [00:04:45] school? Or what do we do to make sure they’re learning something when they’re in school? Or how to improve immunization rates or how to improve, uh, the take up of, uh, um, technology in agriculture in Africa.
[00:04:57] Esther Duflo: Mm-hmm. All of this problem one by one, by one by one. [00:05:00] Can be treated very much in the way that you are thinking about treating disease, which is thinking about a specific treatment.
[00:05:08] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:05:08] Esther Duflo: Which would mean intervention. Mm-hmm. In the poverty space. See whether it works. By [00:05:15] using randomized control trials like you would test a medicine and if it doesn’t work, then move to the next thing.
[00:05:22] Esther Duflo: Most things don’t work. It’s good to know, but if it does work, then you can scale it up. And that is the work that we are doing. [00:05:30] Uh, at j the, the Poverty Action Lab, the institution that I have funded and I still, uh, co-direct to them. For the longest time, I’ve really focused on any number of problems on poverty.
[00:05:40] Esther Duflo: Mm-hmm. Uh, including the environment, but not so much climate change because, [00:05:45] uh, the poor people in the world contribute exactly nothing to climate change. Right, right.
[00:05:48] Ben Hurst: They’re, it’s not actually their fault.
[00:05:49] Esther Duflo: Yeah. So it’s not their fault and the idea that, oh, we should find ways for, you know, African farmers to spend less energy is a little bit preposterous.
[00:05:58] Ben Hurst: Right.
[00:05:59] Esther Duflo: Um, [00:06:00] that’s so interesting. So I’ve been working on the, you know, other things. Um, just to give you an idea, an African in the bottom half of the distribution of income in Africa emits 122 less time, uh, greenhouse [00:06:15] gas than an American in the top 10% of the distribution. Oh my gosh. So this inequality in emission is such that it’s kind of never really in my shoe think, okay, there are more important things to deal with.
[00:06:25] Esther Duflo: Right. Right now.
[00:06:27] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:06:28] Esther Duflo: About, you know, if you think about poverty [00:06:30] and HIV and whatnot, but a few years ago I realized that, and before that, let me say this approach has had tremendous amount of success. Um, maybe 20 years ago we were seen as, uh, not jobs by wanting to, you know, do [00:06:45] experiments on poverty issues.
[00:06:47] Maryam Pasha: Mm-hmm.
[00:06:47] Esther Duflo: But the approach is really, uh, caught up, uh, government across this continent and also in India and Latin America are now using it. To improve the effectiveness of their programs and policies.
[00:06:59] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm. [00:07:00]
[00:07:00] Esther Duflo: And, um, about eight, 800 million people have already been touched by the program that, uh, we have shown to be effective.
[00:07:08] Esther Duflo: Someone in our network of researchers have shown to be effective. So this was all going swimmingly. Mm-hmm. And they have been a lot of progress. [00:07:15] Not just to due to us, but there have been a lot of progress on the key problems that the poor face.
[00:07:19] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:07:20] Esther Duflo: Maternal mortality has been divided into since the 1990s.
[00:07:24] Esther Duflo: Infant mortality has been divided by two. The death from HFB have plummeted. Oh, so [00:07:30] it’s the death from malaria has plummeted. Right. Most kids are in school and so on. So everything was going well, but. What we are facing in the next 10, 20, 30 years mm-hmm. Is the prospect that some of these gains would be erased, [00:07:45] uh, by climate change because the world’s poor live in the hottest places.
[00:07:51] Ben Hurst: Right.
[00:07:52] Esther Duflo: And if the earth warmed up, let’s say two degrees
[00:07:55] Ben Hurst: mm-hmm.
[00:07:56] Esther Duflo: It doesn’t quite warm up the same way everywhere, but we could [00:08:00] first approximation It does. Yeah. But if you go from, you know, a 30 degree Celsius day to a 32, it is very, very, very, very different. Mm-hmm. Then you go from 18 to 20.
[00:08:10] Ben Hurst: Right.
[00:08:10] Esther Duflo: When you go from 80 to 20, you know you’re from comfortable to comfortable.
[00:08:14] Ben Hurst: Yeah.
[00:08:14] Esther Duflo: [00:08:15] When you go from self, just the air condition a little
[00:08:17] Ben Hurst: bit.
[00:08:17] Esther Duflo: It is, it is like awful.
[00:08:19] Ben Hurst: Yeah.
[00:08:20] Esther Duflo: First thing. So there’ll be more and more places that are inhabitable. There have been more and more people who live, you know, day in, day out in super hot circumstances.
[00:08:28] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:08:29] Esther Duflo: All in the [00:08:30] poor countries. Whereas in Denmark, they’re going to have, you know, cooler, they’re going to have warmer winter.
[00:08:35] Esther Duflo: Mm-hmm. Which is going to save a lot of lives. Because poor old people in Denmark, Denmark die market freeze into death. Yeah, yeah, yeah. In winter. So for the, [00:08:45] broadly speaking for the north in term of mortality is not a bad thing.
[00:08:48] Ben Hurst: Okay.
[00:08:49] Esther Duflo: There are a lot of other damages they shouldn’t ignore. Mm-hmm. But for the, for, for the, the poor countries and poor people, it’s a disaster.
[00:08:56] Esther Duflo: The other reason why it’s a disaster is that poverty [00:09:00] itself hinder adaptation. ’cause people don’t have electricity because they work outside. Uh, because they have homes that are not, you know, that are small and not well ventilated and so on. So, uh, income is externally protective. If it’s very hot in Texas, you [00:09:15] can’t crop the air conditioning.
[00:09:16] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:09:16] Esther Duflo: It’s very hot in Pakistan while you still go to go to your construction work.
[00:09:19] Ben Hurst: Right.
[00:09:20] Esther Duflo: Yesterday I, uh, I took a car, went out of, uh, you know, about two hours of, um, Nairobi, near Maasai in a place that gets very hot in the, in the [00:09:30] summer. And I ask people, what do you do? And it gets very hot. Hmm. Uh, I ask a bunch of women who are hoking vegetables on market.
[00:09:36] Esther Duflo: And they’re like, nothing. What do, what do you want us to do? We go
[00:09:38] Ben Hurst: to work.
[00:09:39] Esther Duflo: Yeah, we, we
[00:09:39] Ben Hurst: go to
[00:09:39] Esther Duflo: work.
[00:09:40] Ben Hurst: What are the options?
[00:09:40] Esther Duflo: And I was like, isn’t it tiring? I was like, yeah, of course it’s tiring. Our legs get, you [00:09:45] know, flabby and our heartbeats fast, but where is the money going to come from? Yeah. So that’s, that’s the issue.
[00:09:51] Esther Duflo: So at this point I decided, okay, if I’m looking, you know. 10, 20, 30 years ahead. Mm-hmm.
[00:09:57] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:09:57] Esther Duflo: I have to find a way [00:10:00] to make people aware that poor people are in the world, are the prime victims of climate change. Mm-hmm. And we have to do something to deal with it.
[00:10:07] Ben Hurst: This is so interesting.
Personal Journey and Motivation
[00:10:08] Ben Hurst: So what you said, you’ve worked in.
[00:10:10] Ben Hurst: Uh, reducing poverty for your whole career. Where did that start? Like why do [00:10:15] you not, why do you care? That’s a crazy question because everybody should care about poverty, but where does that, is it a passion? Is it a desire? Where did that interest come from or what was the, was there like a, a moment that made you decide that that was what you wanted to do?
[00:10:28] Esther Duflo: It might be a calling maybe.
[00:10:29] Ben Hurst: [00:10:30] Yeah. Cool. Is
[00:10:30] Esther Duflo: the word I’m from that. It’s, it’s, it’s slightly, uh, uh, you know, arrogant to say that. Mm-hmm. But it, I think it actually is what it’s, um, my, my mom is a doctor and, uh, she was working in a, in an [00:10:45] association of pediatricians. Mm-hmm. Uh, helping kids, victims of war. So from when I was very little, she was going to.
[00:10:51] Esther Duflo: He was traveling back and forth to, to poor countries. Not all the time, but from time to time to, uh, work with them. And she would come back and show a slideshow of where [00:11:00] she’d been.
[00:11:01] Ben Hurst: Oh
[00:11:01] Esther Duflo: my God. And show us.
[00:11:02] Ben Hurst: Well, like as like, you know, when parents come back from holiday and they’re like, here’s this t-shirt that I bought you.
[00:11:06] Ben Hurst: She would just give. Yeah. She would show
[00:11:07] Esther Duflo: us presentation, a slideshow presentation, right. With this little, you know, small slides that existed back in [00:11:15] the day and show us, for example, you know. Kids, uh, having to go look for water very far from home or, um, I remember one kid, uh, wearing a knik, uh,
[00:11:27] Maryam Pasha: wow.
[00:11:28] Esther Duflo: And I was, at this point I was [00:11:30] like, oh, wow.
[00:11:30] Esther Duflo: I, you know, I’m so lucky to have been born in this kind of middle class family and a suburb of Paris where I have everything I need and it’s sort of a cosmic debt I have to the world.
[00:11:42] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:11:43] Esther Duflo: And what am I going [00:11:45] to, to do to. Repay the debt.
[00:11:47] Ben Hurst: Right.
[00:11:47] Esther Duflo: And you know, it took me a while to figure out how to get there, but this kind of working as an economist, working with government, NGOs, activists companies, anyone to improve the effectiveness [00:12:00] of what they want to do anyways.
[00:12:01] Esther Duflo: That you has solved that little personal problem of mine.
[00:12:06] Ben Hurst: Okay. Of
[00:12:06] Esther Duflo: why I am on this office.
[00:12:07] Ben Hurst: So it’s a deep, a deep feeling of responsibility. A cosmic debt is a nice way of describing it. And I’m, I’m, my assumption [00:12:15] then is that that is where the manifestation of JAL came from. That this was like some kind of outworking of that feeling of.
[00:12:23] Ben Hurst: Owing something to the universe.
The Role of Abdul Latif Jamil Poverty Action Lab
[00:12:25] Ben Hurst: Um, and I, I’m interested, so J Par stands for Abdul Latif Jamil, uh, poverty Action Lab, who is Abdul Latif. Jamil.
[00:12:36] Esther Duflo: So Abdul Latif Jamil is no more, but his son, Mohammed Jamil is actually, uh, an alum of, uh, MIT. And, uh, uh, [00:12:45] his father, uh, Abdul Jamil started, uh, actually a Toyota, uh, distribution company in Saudi Arabia.
[00:12:52] Esther Duflo: Okay. And from there, quite uniquely, from Saudi Arabia, from, you know, relatively modest beginning, started to build a fortune, [00:13:00] which is son has developed by. Continuing to do, you know, cars and, uh, investing in now, all sorts of other things. Um, and, um, at some point he, he found us during [00:13:15] one of his visits to MIT, always been really passionate about, uh, doing something against poverty.
[00:13:21] Esther Duflo: Uh, he was also interested maybe in giving back to his alma mater, and he found in us a way of combining these two things. [00:13:30] So he’s really the, the one who. Trusted our crazy vision.
[00:13:35] Ben Hurst: Mm,
[00:13:36] Esther Duflo: okay. And pushed us to, uh, you know, gave us the financing and also the inspiration to start the lamb.
[00:13:41] Ben Hurst: Okay. So he’s the, he’s the, the enabler.[00:13:45]
[00:13:45] Ben Hurst: So I dunno if that’s the right enabler. Maybe.
[00:13:47] Esther Duflo: Very much so, very much so. Because it’s not just the finance, but it’s also the constant part is still beliefs in his journey, believer and, and so on.
[00:13:56] Ben Hurst: Okay.
Climate Adaptation Strategies
[00:13:56] Ben Hurst: Maybe let’s dive into like the, the, is it the weeds, the meat and potatoes? I dunno what they’re correct.
[00:14:01] Ben Hurst: A, uh, metaphor is for it, but let’s dive into it. I’m thinking in a, in, in a practical sense, what is it that can be done to study climate aada adaptation strategies? ’cause [00:14:15] we know, like you said, the world is changing. Um, it’s heating up, which means that people are gonna be facing new challenges that they’ve not been facing, or the challenges that they’ve been facing are gonna be more intense.
[00:14:26] Ben Hurst: Uh. Quicker, more in, more like [00:14:30] impactful I guess, in lots of ways. How do you go about measuring the effectiveness of different approaches? So you mentioned, is it random randomized control TR trials, which I don’t know a lot about, but I do know that it’s a rct. [00:14:45] So how do RCTs work, um, and how do you. At the lab go about figuring out what is effective and what’s not effective.
[00:14:54] Esther Duflo: So, uh, I, in Poverty Action Lab, we have a, an A Climate initiative [00:15:00] Okay. Called kk, the King Climate Action Initiative, which has, which focuses on the. Uh, different pillars of climate mitigation, climate adaptation, and, uh, energy access, which
[00:15:10] Ben Hurst: say it again, is,
[00:15:12] uh,
[00:15:12] Esther Duflo: climate mitigation, climate mitigation, climate [00:15:15] adaptation, adaptation and energy access.
[00:15:16] Ben Hurst: Okay.
[00:15:16] Esther Duflo: So mitigation are things like, what, what can you do to reduce emissions? Um, um, adaptation is how can you find solutions to help people adapt. Mm-hmm. And energy access is because people in the developing [00:15:30] world badly need access to energy in a way that is not. Um, contributing to the problem. Okay, so let me focus, give you an example of so, and all we do is this randomized control trials plus helping government scale up what we have found to be effective.
[00:15:44] Ben Hurst: Okay. [00:15:45]
[00:15:45] Esther Duflo: So let me give you an, an example concrete example for adaptation.
[00:15:49] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:15:50] Esther Duflo: Um, which, so Niger is a extremely arid place where a lot of the soil is so badly degraded that it’s very difficult to [00:16:00] grow anything.
[00:16:00] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:16:01] Esther Duflo: Uh, there existed technology, uh, which is called in French Damon, like a half moon.
[00:16:06] Esther Duflo: Where what basically you do is to, um, dig in the soil, uh, shape hole in the shape of the half moon.
[00:16:14] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm. [00:16:15]
[00:16:15] Esther Duflo: Um, large enough and deep enough that, uh, the water from the rain whenever it comes kind of stays there. And
[00:16:22] Ben Hurst: like a little pond,
[00:16:23] Esther Duflo: like a, it kind of doesn’t make a pond, but it, it retains moisture.
[00:16:28] Ben Hurst: Okay.
[00:16:28] Ben Hurst: Right.
[00:16:28] Esther Duflo: It makes a pond very [00:16:30] temporarily maybe, but then the pond goes away, but it soaks in.
[00:16:32] Ben Hurst: Okay.
[00:16:33] Esther Duflo: So that technology has been shown by agonist to be effective.
[00:16:36] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:16:37] Esther Duflo: Uh, what, uh, economists did, so this has work by Kelsey Jack, uh, uh, and her collaborators, uh, Jenny [00:16:45] Ker and others. What they have done is, uh, uh, set up an R CT working with, uh, farmers to, uh, train them to use this to, to dig these holes.
[00:16:55] Maryam Pasha: Mm-hmm.
[00:16:56] Esther Duflo: Uh, and they were interested in, oh, do we need to train them? Do [00:17:00] we need to give them a financial institution in incentive to do it? Yeah. Or do we need both? So they worked across, uh, hundreds of villages and set up different treatments mm-hmm. Where, uh, in, in a randomized way. So literally flipping [00:17:15] coins.
[00:17:15] Esther Duflo: So some villages got just the training, some villages got the money, some villages got the training and the money. And some villages are the control group.
[00:17:22] Ben Hurst: Okay? Right.
[00:17:23] Esther Duflo: So very much the way you would test, um, a vaccine where some people get a vaccine, some people get a placebo,
[00:17:28] Ben Hurst: right?
[00:17:29] Esther Duflo: So here these are [00:17:30] the four for treatment and a control group.
[00:17:32] Esther Duflo: Mm-hmm. And then they looked what happens. And what I found is that it is basically sufficient to tell people how to do it. For them to adopt it. Mm-hmm.
The Value of Time and Effort Over Money
[00:17:40] Esther Duflo: At least to a, to some extent, money is not necessary because I guess people see the value of doing it and they want, they don’t need money. They just need time.
[00:17:48] Esther Duflo: Yeah. Uh, and effort. And they want to do it. Uh, so that’s the first great news because that’s much, much cheaper than, you know, going around distributing money to do it.
[00:17:56] Maryam Pasha: Mm-hmm.
[00:17:57] Esther Duflo: And, um.
Scaling Up Sustainable Land Productivity
[00:17:58] Esther Duflo: The second good news is that when you follow over time, uh, the, uh, production productivity of the land really skyrockets from zero to something that’s much higher than zero.
[00:18:08] Esther Duflo: Mm-hmm. And, um, it also makes it, it’s also adaptative in the sense that [00:18:15] it’s, it makes the, the production more drought resistance. So not only you increase the level, but you reduce the fluctuation. Um, so. Uh, they subsequently, so that’s kind of, that was their study. They published their study and then they [00:18:30] started working with the government to try and get a scale up of this mm-hmm.
[00:18:35] Esther Duflo: Of the adaptation of this technology. Okay.
Challenges in Implementing Climate Solutions
[00:18:37] Esther Duflo: So this met with all sorts of geo. Geopolitical issues because there was a CO in Niger and then, uh, U-S-A-I-D uh, uh, vanished in a puff of smoke recently. Right. But despite that, you know, this is going on and, uh, and progressively there is a scale up of this method, which could really, you know, help farmer in Niger a lot.
[00:18:56] Esther Duflo: So that’s an example.
[00:18:58] Ben Hurst: Co might be the wrong word, but [00:19:00] that is, that’s a, I mean. What you’re talking about is like things where we’re evidencing, whether they work or not. We know for sure this definitely works and it’s scalable, and then you’re just equipping people or governments to scale it up. I’m wondering.
Addressing Just Transition for Poor Communities
[00:19:14] Ben Hurst: [00:19:15] If you’re thinking about the, the poorest communities globally, what does, what does just transition look like for those communities? Because I, I’m sure when we come across these like new ideas or old ideas that work and we can prove that they [00:19:30] work and they’re really efficient, there must be some kind of, uh.
[00:19:36] Ben Hurst: I guess systemic issue in terms of engaging with governments where the poorest people as always just get left behind, right? Like where we know these strategies work, but then the [00:19:45] governments are probably more driven to communities that they view as higher value or whatever it might be. What does just transition look like when we’re thinking about working with these poor communities and is.
[00:19:56] Ben Hurst: Part of the reason that you choose to start in those communities with these initiatives. [00:20:00]
[00:20:00] Esther Duflo: So that’s a fantastic question. Particularly emphasis on just mm-hmm. Um, and I think you’re exactly right about our tendency, even when we get to, when we work on the climate problem, there’s a strong tendency to go from the [00:20:15] richest people and.
[00:20:16] Esther Duflo: To the poorest people last. Right, right. But that’s not true just with governments of, of poor countries. Uh, it’s, it’s also very true of governments of rich countries. Mm-hmm.
Global Emissions and the Need for Fair Compensation
[00:20:26] Esther Duflo: Uh, in part, for years we sort of ignored the, the, the potential for just transition in the poor countries, or we started nickel and dimming the, the, the poor world thinking, well, we are not very sure we can spend a lot of money on your transition.
[00:20:40] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:20:40] Esther Duflo: Which is really insane when you think about it, because a ton of carbon is a ton of carbon. Yeah. [00:20:45]
[00:20:45] Ben Hurst: No
[00:20:45] Esther Duflo: matter
[00:20:45] Ben Hurst: where
[00:20:46] Esther Duflo: it is. No matter where it is. Yeah. So a ton of carbon in Ghana is a ton of carbon in Norway.
The Role of Wealthy Nations and Corporations
[00:20:51] Esther Duflo: And to tell Ghana, well, we could help you in having a green, you know, transition, but you know, you are going to have to borrow the money and maybe you should buy our equipment to do it because we are very nice to you.
[00:21:04] Esther Duflo: That’s crazy. Yeah, because that’s not charity. That’s not, it’s just. You should do it in Ghana if it’s cheaper for you to do it in Ghana. Yeah. And then you should pay for it because you care about emission [00:21:15] just as much as Ghana. Mm-hmm. And there is no reason for Ghana to pay for it.
[00:21:18] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:21:19] Esther Duflo: But it’s not the way we have been doing.
[00:21:21] Esther Duflo: Partly because maybe we underestimated how much potential there is in poor countries. Because today the [00:21:30] consumption emission are very low. Mm-hmm. In poor countries. But as they become richer, they will become higher and eventually they will dwarf what’s happening in rich countries today. Mm-hmm.
[00:21:39] Esther Duflo: Especially if rich countries manage to transition.
The Importance of Immediate Climate Action
[00:21:42] Esther Duflo: So if we don’t do something now, we are gonna have to deal with this problem 50 years from now, and then we’ll be in the same situation as we are now in rich country where we have to undo all of the things and build and decommission coal plants and whatever we should really.
[00:21:57] Esther Duflo: It is total common sense [00:22:00] to take the right path as opposed to take the wrong path and then have to backtrack.
[00:22:04] Ben Hurst: Right. Right, right.
[00:22:04] Esther Duflo: But to me, this has nothing to do with justice. It just is efficiency. That’s just convenience. Yeah. And common shared convenience. Yeah. What justice is about is about compensating [00:22:15] people for the damages that our emissions in the past.
[00:22:19] Esther Duflo: Mm-hmm. But still today are imposing on the poor.
[00:22:22] Ben Hurst: Right.
[00:22:23] Esther Duflo: So temperature kills. Uh, disaster skills, but just temperature kills the hot [00:22:30] temperature kills these. Think of this woman in the market. Yeah, they don’t realize it, but they are basically killing themselves slowly because they’re putting their kidney and there are a lot of, uh, strain and uh, you know, some of them might have a stroke when [00:22:45] they’re in the heat, but marginally they’re just there.
[00:22:47] Esther Duflo: Their lifespan is that short reducing their
[00:22:49] Ben Hurst: lifespan.
[00:22:49] Esther Duflo: Yeah. Just by. So the estimate is about temperature alone, uh, would increase the number of deaths, uh, by about 6 million per year. By [00:23:00] 2100 6 million is all of the deaths of cancer or all of the deaths of infectious diseases combined.
[00:23:05] Ben Hurst: And these are things that we put a lot of money and effort into reducing.
[00:23:10] Esther Duflo: But all this death, all these extra deaths Yeah. Are coming outside the OECD in the [00:23:15] poor countries.
[00:23:15] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:23:15] Esther Duflo: Because of what we discussed earlier, that they’re already hot and they, they don’t, they can’t protect themselves. So that is, you know, a cost that we are imposing year after year with the emissions that we continue to, uh, to send into the [00:23:30] atmosphere.
[00:23:30] Maryam Pasha: Right.
[00:23:31] Esther Duflo: If you put a value on these emissions, uh, on these lives, it’s. It has all sorts of moral issues, but let’s do it for the sake of concreteness
[00:23:40] Ben Hurst: because we’re It’s economics. Yeah,
[00:23:42] Esther Duflo: because it’s economics. So if you use, uh, $2 million [00:23:45] for a value of a statistical life mm-hmm. Uh, which is what about what they use in Mexico, and you take the, the, the, the cost of just US plus Europe emissions.
[00:23:55] Esther Duflo: Mm-hmm.
[00:23:55] Ben Hurst: That’s
[00:23:56] Esther Duflo: a trillion dollars in value [00:24:00] every year. Entirely un poor countries.
[00:24:02] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:24:03] Esther Duflo: If you take the entire OICs $1.7 trillion. Wow. So that is, so the, the question is finding a way to distribute that money to the poor mm-hmm. Who are hurt [00:24:15] by climate change. That to me is the just part.
[00:24:17] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:24:18] Esther Duflo: And, um, at race to issue.
[00:24:21] Esther Duflo: Mm-hmm. One is how to raise the money.
[00:24:24] Ben Hurst: Yeah.
[00:24:24] Esther Duflo: And one is how to spend the money.
[00:24:26] Ben Hurst: Right.
[00:24:27] Esther Duflo: So how to raise the money is very much what I’m [00:24:30] going to try to argue for today.
[00:24:31] Ben Hurst: Okay? Right.
[00:24:32] Esther Duflo: Listen
[00:24:32] Ben Hurst: to the,
[00:24:33] Esther Duflo: it has to come from public, uh, public, uh, distribution because there’s no money to be made and saving the life of a poor woman in Pakistan.
[00:24:42] Esther Duflo: Right. The social value Yeah. Of $2 [00:24:45] million alive. Yeah. There is no money to be made. Um,
[00:24:48] Ben Hurst: nobody, nobody’s pockets are,
[00:24:49] Esther Duflo: nobody pockets are gonna get, you know, lined up for doing that. And it’s too, too much money for philanthropy. So it really has to come from international redistribution.
[00:24:58] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:24:59] Esther Duflo: And it’s not [00:25:00] very fashionable right now.
[00:25:01] Esther Duflo: All of the rich countries are cutting their, their cooperation money instead of increasing it. So. It should really come, I think, from taxing the billionaires. Mm-hmm. And the largest [00:25:15] multinational multilateral corporation where there is a lot of money, which is currently pretty much untaxed. Mm-hmm. So I think there should be a global effort to, to collect this money that, you know, the 3000 richest billionaires, the few hundred largest corporation, largest [00:25:30] very modest tax on them would raise, uh, you know, could raise.
[00:25:34] Esther Duflo: Close to a trillion dollar.
[00:25:36] Ben Hurst: Yeah. Rich people don’t like being told that they need to be taxed, but in this case, I guess also there’s a direct link there between the, the richest people in the [00:25:45] world and the amount of pollution, the amount of, uh, degrees of warming that the planet is seeing because they are generating, or they own the companies that are generating that change.
[00:25:55] Ben Hurst: For those people, that is directly impacting those people.
[00:25:58] Esther Duflo: That’s absolutely true, right? [00:26:00] Uh, this is, you know, they made the money off the global economy that is generating the emission that are killing for people. So, you know, can they spend 2% or 3% of their wealth annually for compensating for their death?
[00:26:11] Esther Duflo: Right. They would not even notice it. They don’t like the [00:26:15] idea, but I’m not talking about exp population here. Yeah, but they
[00:26:17] Ben Hurst: wouldn’t
[00:26:17] Esther Duflo: feel it. I’m talking about very, very, very modest. Amount of money for them, right? So that’s the raising the money policy,
[00:26:24] Ben Hurst: and then it becomes a public health issue right across those countries.
[00:26:27] Ben Hurst: Like it’s the, the, uh, it’s a [00:26:30] public policy thing of we do this because this is what we believe about human life. Okay. Um, we’ve got two more questions to, to wrap up here. Um, the next one is, I guess. Uh, for me this, the, the work sounds [00:26:45] incr, I mean, obviously the work is incredible ’cause you want a, a Nobel prize for it, but I’m wondering how much support or how much attention you get from policy makers, from governments a, around this work.
[00:26:57] Ben Hurst: Is it an easy sell? Are people generally like in [00:27:00] agreement with you when they first hear the ideas or they first see the research? Or is this something that. You’re struggling to get through the door or struggling to push?
[00:27:08] Esther Duflo: Uh, so I’ve been at this idea of ES control trial for now. JAL is 20 years old.
[00:27:13] Esther Duflo: Mm-hmm. Uh, we celebrate 21, I guess [00:27:15] we celebrated 20 years last, last year. Happy birthday. Thank you. And, uh, it’s been a, I must say, I can’t complain. It’s been a remarkable journey because we started from nothing. Mm-hmm. In term of people having no understanding of, of. No [00:27:30] conception of what this was and that it could be done to now, uh, you know, randomized control trial to very much being one of the tool that, uh, um, people in the field are willing to consider.
[00:27:42] Ben Hurst: Hmm.
[00:27:43] Esther Duflo: And also more, perhaps even more [00:27:45] importantly, um, willing to listen to the results of what others in other countries or done. Yeah. They don’t to do the research themselves so they don’t have to do the research themselves. Yeah. And that has really, you know, did the, the, it is been tremendous, uh, in [00:28:00] term of the.
[00:28:01] Esther Duflo: The impact this has had and the, the way it has changed the, the conversation mm-hmm. In poverty. I think now climate change is ripe for doing a bit of that. There is a lot of excitement about this solution or that solution. Mm-hmm. Very often not backed by [00:28:15] much role. Yeah. So. So we are ready to do, uh, many more of the type of project that I described for randomized control trial.
[00:28:22] Ben Hurst: This is good. We love a good news story. It’s good that it’s like it’s something, it’s a method that works. We know it works because it’s based on [00:28:30] evidence and people are responding well to it, which means that we are moving forward. That’s positive. I think our listeners. Hearing anything that’s positive in the world of climate.
[00:28:38] Ben Hurst: ’cause sometimes it can feel so overwhelming, can feel like it’s all just doom and gloom and everything’s wrong. And obviously it’s a bad situation, [00:28:45] but there’s progress being made, which is, which is good.
Effective Financial Support for Climate Resilience
[00:28:48] Ben Hurst: Um, and I guess for the last question, what I’d like to know is, based on all of your work, based on all of the evidence that you’ve gathered over the years, what would you say is the best way to provide financial help to communities which also at the same time boost their economic growth?
[00:29:07] Ben Hurst: Build resilience to climate shock. ’cause I think those are two very different things, right? One is the, the financial support, but this, the other piece is like, [00:29:15] how do they become resistant to the things that are definitely coming, that we know are coming to those communities?
[00:29:20] Esther Duflo: Yeah, that’s a great question.
[00:29:21] Esther Duflo: It very much relates to what we were discussing before, which is should you raise this competition money? How should you spend it?
[00:29:27] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:29:28] Esther Duflo: And, um, [00:29:30] I think we need to take almost 180 degrees, uh. Departure from the way that, uh, people in the north have been thinking about climate finance.
[00:29:41] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:29:42] Esther Duflo: Where, uh, in climate [00:29:45] finance people, uh, the, the different institutions that are handling the money really want to look very, very, very carefully at what the recipients are doing.
[00:29:55] Esther Duflo: Right. Uh, it takes months and in fact, often years to go from [00:30:00] an idea to actually getting the fund and even the disbursement is also very slow. Mm. And then, um, yada, yada yada. Mm-hmm. So the, the green climate funds are spending about 20% of what they have as a result.
[00:30:13] Ben Hurst: Right.
[00:30:13] Esther Duflo: Which is [00:30:15] disastrous.
[00:30:15] Ben Hurst: Yeah.
[00:30:15] Esther Duflo: So I think, and in, in the case of.
[00:30:19] Esther Duflo: Compensation money, if you really think of it as this is to compensate you for the damages that we are doing to you now. Mm-hmm. By the emission now, you know, belongs [00:30:30] to the people.
[00:30:30] Ben Hurst: Yeah. They can do what they want.
[00:30:32] Esther Duflo: So the best way to spend it, I think, is to send it to the people. Wow. And to the c. Now you might be saying, well, you know, fine, that’s cash.
[00:30:41] Esther Duflo: Is cash, it’s good enough. Mm-hmm. But, uh, does it build, uh, resilience? [00:30:45] Resilience and so on? Yeah. Um, and the answer to that, um, first of all, it might not be the best way to build resilience
[00:30:52] Ben Hurst: mm-hmm.
[00:30:53] Esther Duflo: But it is a way to build resilience.
[00:30:55] Ben Hurst: Yeah. It’s a good point.
[00:30:55] Esther Duflo: That is very low overhead.
[00:30:57] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:30:57] Esther Duflo: Because it’s very easy to give cash to people.
[00:30:59] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:30:59] Esther Duflo: You [00:31:00] know, everybody, especially on this continent in Africa mm-hmm. Has access to a. Mobile money wallet
[00:31:05] Ben Hurst: mm-hmm.
[00:31:06] Esther Duflo: Can be plugged into a pipeline. The overhead of sending, uh, cash transfer to people is about zero.
[00:31:11] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:31:12] Esther Duflo: Um, we have now hundreds of studies that [00:31:15] show that people use it well. So their money is not wasted.
[00:31:18] Ben Hurst: Yeah, of course they do, because they’re trying to, they’re trying to survive the, the
[00:31:21] Esther Duflo: problem, you know, and the, so, so the, the, the impacts can be, uh, at least one for one or a bit more than one for one. Mm-hmm. To the extent that they’re building [00:31:30] assets, they are, you know, using some of the money to, to build solar panel and power, power pump and so on.
[00:31:38] Esther Duflo: Mm. And we also have evidence that people use it for building resilience individually. Uh, for example, there was a program [00:31:45] in, um. Uh, uh, not a programmer government policy in, uh, in Zambia where people were getting just a regular cash transfer at about the poverty line, uh, every month. And what it shows is that not only do they do better every [00:32:00] month, but the fluctuation that you normally get during droughts and floods,
[00:32:04] Ben Hurst: right,
[00:32:04] Esther Duflo: get eliminated.
[00:32:06] Esther Duflo: Because people were able to save a little bit, invest a little bit, and protect themselves and so on, and
[00:32:10] Ben Hurst: not thrust back into extreme poverty every time there’s a a climate issue.
[00:32:14] Esther Duflo: Yeah.
[00:32:14] Ben Hurst: Yeah.
[00:32:14] Esther Duflo: [00:32:15] So there might be a better solution, but we don’t know yet and we shouldn’t go for, and it might be quite specific and it might take a lot of effort to monitor that is actually being implemented.
[00:32:26] Esther Duflo: Mm-hmm. So my view is that since we know that [00:32:30] cache is quite good, we should go with. Raising the cash and send it off mm-hmm. As soon as possible, because people are dying now.
[00:32:37] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:32:37] Esther Duflo: Not in 10 years when we have finished the research.
[00:32:39] Ben Hurst: Yeah.
[00:32:41] Esther Duflo: Uh, the second part of it is, um, uh, one could, uh, give part of [00:32:45] the money to communities, uh, uh, to help them.
[00:32:50] Esther Duflo: In anticipation and just after disasters. Uh, so there is a program in Mexico that used to do that, uh, called den, where it was mostly parametric. So whenever there is a lot [00:33:00] of wind or a lot of water or it gets very hot mm-hmm. It would get kinda, they would be eligible for a grant. Mm-hmm. Which they could get very rapidly.
[00:33:07] Esther Duflo: Uh, you could do even better if we can, if you can do it just before.
[00:33:10] Ben Hurst: Mm-hmm.
[00:33:11] Esther Duflo: An anticipated shock. You
[00:33:12] Ben Hurst: have to wait until the actual
[00:33:13] Esther Duflo: thing so you can, uh, [00:33:15] start doing things that individuals cannot do. So easily themselves.
[00:33:19] Ben Hurst: Right.
[00:33:19] Esther Duflo: For example, build levies if people are close to the, to the, uh, to the water. Or you can, you know, create a [00:33:30] cooling center or anything that can be done at the mm-hmm.
[00:33:33] Esther Duflo: At the local level. So I think that combination of these two things, uh, uh, solutions we can, that are ready now mm-hmm. That can be put at scale now. And in the meantime, we kind of should continue spending [00:33:45] money. Innovating different solutions such that governments with the budget that would be freed up mm-hmm.
[00:33:51] Esther Duflo: By the fact that they don’t have to support their people, would be able to do things that are, you know, they would’ve a big toolbox of things that they could pay for. To increase resilience at the [00:34:00] national level, at the community level, and at the individual level.
[00:34:02] Ben Hurst: Hmm.
Concluding Thoughts and Future Directions
[00:34:03] Ben Hurst: Do you know, do you know what’s so interesting about this conversation is I came into the conversation not being sure if it would all make sense to me, but it ma it all, I, I feel like you’ve cracked it.
[00:34:12] Ben Hurst: Like I feel like you figured it out and it all makes [00:34:15] sense. The solutions are like, so accessible and so workable. Um, and they’re also so evidence-based that this seems like I, I would give you a Nobel Prize for this. I give you a Nobel Prize. Another one. Yeah. Uh, essa, [00:34:30] thank you so much for, for sitting and chatting with us.
[00:34:32] Ben Hurst: I’ve really enjoyed it. I feel like I’ve learned a lot, um, and I feel like. For the people who are listening at home. This is like a real hopeful episode where we can see that there’s some work that’s working, um, and some solutions that are [00:34:45] very practical and very achievable. Um, and not just for us, but for the poorest people on the planet, which I think is so important and so inspiring.
[00:34:53] Ben Hurst: So thank you for sitting with us and for chatting.
[00:34:55] Esther Duflo: Thank you so much. Thank you so much. It was great.
[00:34:58] Maryam Pasha: Thank you for joining us this [00:35:00] week. We really hope you’ve enjoyed this episode.
[00:35:02] Esther Duflo: If you did, please hit the follow button to
[00:35:04] Ben Hurst: make sure that you get next week’s release. While you’re at it, please leave a rating and a review.
[00:35:10] Maryam Pasha: Now, let’s shout out to our fabulous team behind the Poll
[00:35:13] Ben Hurst: Executive, produced by Josie [00:35:15] Coulter,
[00:35:15] Maryam Pasha: produced by Ben Beheshti.
[00:35:17] Ben Hurst: Music, also by Beba Hesty,
[00:35:19] Maryam Pasha: communications by Tara Cooper and Izzy Gladstone.
[00:35:22] Ben Hurst: Curation by Deisha Chandra,
[00:35:24] Maryam Pasha: hosted by Ben Hurst.
[00:35:26] Ben Hurst: I’m Marion Pasha,
[00:35:27] Maryam Pasha: and remember.
[00:35:28] Ben Hurst: Stay [00:35:30] curious.
