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What are the tactics and propaganda playbook of Big Oil, and what role can artists and popular culture take in reclaiming the narrative? From the flaws of the Paris Agreement to why the net zero narrative is a political football, tune in to hear insights from investigative journalists, climate advocates and lawyers as they pinpoint solutions at this Climate Curious Live, recorded at EarthPercent x Climate Spring’s collaboration at Ladbroke Hall, London, moderated by Tori Tsui.
Featuring:
Amy Westervelt, investigative journalist, Founder, Critical Frequency
Tessa Khan, Founder & Director, Uplift
Nathan Thanki, Head of Moments, Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty
Peter Geoghegan, Journalist, Democracy For Sale
Tori Tsui, Author, Activist, Senior Advisor, Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty
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Created by TEDxLondon
Executive produced by Josie Colter
Produced by Ben Beheshty
Curated by Deesha Chandra
Hosted by Maryam Pasha and Ben Hurst
Communications by Tara Cooper and Issey Gladston
00:00 Introduction
00:48 Panel Introduction
04:04 Current climate and political landscape
04:57 Fossil fuel industry’s influence
16:04 Climate litigation and public demand
23:47 Paris Agreement and climate realities
25:21 The dire state of climate change
26:11 Fossil fuel industry’s record profits
29:03 The Paris Agreement’s flaws
30:43 Public opinion shifts against fossil fuels
34:08 The Rosebank Oil Field controversy
41:47 The need for a just transition
44:48 The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty
48:59 Political influence and fossil fuels
51:08 Conclusion
[00:00:00] Introduction
[00:00:00] Amy Westervelt: I mean, it’s a very handy scapegoat for what we’re actually experiencing, which is the impacts of late stage capitalism. You know?
[00:00:10] Josie Colter: Hey, executive producer Josie Colter here on this week’s Climate Curious [00:00:15] Live. We are taking a look at the narratives and propaganda tactics used by big oil and asking what can we do to reclaim the story?
[00:00:22] Josie Colter: In collaboration with EarthPercent and Climate Spring, we popped up at their live event in London to hit insights and solutions on what we can do to [00:00:30] counter these destructive narratives from investigative journalists such as Amy Westervelt and Peter Geoghegan, environmental lawyers like Tessa Khan and climate activists, Tori Tsui and Nathan Thanki on the Real story behind Big Oil.
[00:00:43] Josie Colter: Here’s Tory Tsui and Friends.[00:00:45]
[00:00:48] Panel introduction
[00:00:48] Tori Tsui: Hi everybody. How are you all doing today? Yeah. Um, these are the vibes. Um, thank you so much for packing out [00:01:00] this incredible venue. I mean, that’s really, really reassuring and, you know, Amy’s work speaks for itself, is just in honor to be sharing the stage with you and alongside some incredible campaigners.
[00:01:13] Tori Tsui: Uh, in this space. So [00:01:15] welcome to this panel titled What we Can Do to Reclaim the Story. We’ve obviously got a little sneak peek into some of the issues and the absolute breadth and enormity of propaganda that we see being, um, enabled and perpetuated by the [00:01:30] fossil fuel industry. Um. In case you forgot, my name is Tori Choi and I have the privilege of working with not only Earth Percent, but the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, and at certain points uplift who Tessa is the founder of.
[00:01:44] Tori Tsui: [00:01:45] So I’m in this very niche intersection between. Uh, music and creative arts and fossil fuels, which, yeah, it sounds niche, but as we’ve seen is actually quite a specific thing that exists. Yeah. Um, and yeah, [00:02:00] I’m joined as I mentioned by some really incredible people and I will give them the opportunity to introduce themselves as I know they will do that justice.
[00:02:09] Tori Tsui: So, starting with Peter over here.
[00:02:12] Peter Geoghegan: Oh, thank you. Um, I’m Peter Gagan and I [00:02:15] run, um, a newsletter called Democracy for Sale. There’s three of us and we are investigative journalists who look at lobbying and influence and, and dark money in politics. And part of that is looking at, at fossil fuel and the fossil fuel industry and fossil fuel lobbying.
[00:02:27] Peter Geoghegan: It’s part of that. [00:02:30]
[00:02:30] Amy Westervelt: I am Amy Westerbilt and I do PowerPoints. That’s funny. Um, I’m also a journalist. Yeah.
[00:02:37] Peter Geoghegan: I can’t do PowerPoints.
[00:02:40] Tessa Khan: Uh, thanks so much, Tori. Hi everyone. I’m Tessa Khan. Um, really [00:02:45] delighted to be up here with my heroes. And, uh, super grateful to a Ascent and Climate Spring just for the inspiration they provide, the support, financial, moral, everything they do, um, for our community.
[00:02:59] Tessa Khan: So thank you so much. [00:03:00] Uh, I am a human rights and climate change lawyer and campaigner, and I run an organization called Uplift, which works for a rapid and just transition away from oil and gas in the uk. [00:03:15]
[00:03:15] Nathan Thanki: Thanks, Tessa. Thanks everyone. Uh, my name is Nathan Thanky. I’m from Belfast in north of Ireland. Yep.
[00:03:21] Nathan Thanki: Someone from Belfast is here, I guess.
[00:03:24] Nathan Thanki: Um, and I work with the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, which somebody said [00:03:30] is a mouthful, so I will no longer be saying that. I’ll just call it the Fossil Fuel Treaty for short. Um, and yeah, I don’t want to feel left out. I also ran a newsletter for a few years called the World at one Degree.
[00:03:44] Nathan Thanki: But we had to [00:03:45] discontinue it and unfortunately the world is at more than one degree of warming, so we needed a new name as well. Um, but yeah, newsletters are a great way to reach people. I think still
[00:03:55] Tori Tsui: the world at more than one degree. Because that gives you quite scope. That’s we pay her the [00:04:00] big box, you know?
[00:04:01] Tori Tsui: Oh, that was quite dark. Sorry guys. Right.
[00:04:04] Current climate and political landscape
[00:04:04] Tori Tsui: We’re gonna dive right in with, I think, what is the lay of the land. I think it would be really helpful for each of you to contextualize where we are currently, what degree are we at? Um, where are we heading? And, and also what is the role that the fossil fuel industry is kind of, um, taking in.
[00:04:22] Tori Tsui: Where we are right now, and alongside that, um, we can get to it afterwards, but I’d like to kind of outline some of the [00:04:30] issues that we have so that in the latter half of this panel we can get to the solutions. So when I say issues, I’m talking about delay, denial, um, you know, propaganda and sponsorship. So from each of your perspectives, it would be really good to elaborate on that.
[00:04:44] Tori Tsui: Would you like [00:04:45] to start, Peter?
[00:04:46] Peter Geoghegan: Okay, I’ll start. Yeah, why not. Thank you very much. Uh, and yeah, and thank you very much for having me. It’s really, really, um, I’m delighted to be here thanks to, to Kathy, uh, Ruman and everybody at, uh, earth present putting this on.
[00:04:57] Fossil fuel industry’s influence
[00:04:57] Peter Geoghegan: Um, I guess what I’d like to talk about a little bit, like, I guess I’m not somebody who, uh, I’m not a climate scientist.
[00:05:03] Peter Geoghegan: Um, so I’m sure other people here will talk a bit more about where we’re at in terms of the climate. But I’m interested in the, in some ways, in the political climate. And I’m really struck, like after, uh, I leave. Here, I’ll have to run off [00:05:15] reasonably shortly because I have to go to Birmingham for reform party conference.
[00:05:19] Peter Geoghegan: Uh, lucky me, um, don’t all cry at once, but, um, um, and the reason I bring that up is ’cause I think it’s, it’s really interesting. Like I, I remember almost exactly four years ago we had COP [00:05:30] in Glasgow and I was up a cop in Glasgow is during the pandemic. And I remember a few, I wrote a piece. Uh, around the same time called, uh, something like how, um, how the Brexit Dark Money Crew have, have, uh, found climate.
[00:05:43] Peter Geoghegan: Uh, and it was all [00:05:45] about, as the name suggests, it was all about how some of the same forces I’ve been writing about the Dark Money Bridge politics were now very, very anti net zero. And I, I was really struck the piece. Kind of was started off by, I’d noticed this, uh, story g getting [00:06:00] loads of traction. It was on the BBC, it was in the Telegraph and their places.
[00:06:02] Peter Geoghegan: It was about this idea of having a referendum on net zero. And I had this kind of statistic, a poll polls polling had been done and we had this referendum on net zero. Um, and the company had done this. Polling were called Car 26. [00:06:15] It never existed before. It set up about a week or two beforehand. And the woman who ran it was a woman called, uh, Lois Perry.
[00:06:20] Peter Geoghegan: And I remember seeing Nigel Farage started talking about, he was asked questions about, it was all over the media. And that was kind of the premise of my piece, kind of digging into that and asking like, what’s going on here? [00:06:30] And there was a kind of, you could argue, I often write about things at one level.
[00:06:34] Peter Geoghegan: I think often look fringe, then unfortunately become less fringe over time. ’cause there’s a reading of that at that moment, which is like, look, this is a fringe interest. At that time, you know, Britain was hosting cop, it was the first [00:06:45] country in the world to get, uh, legally binding, um, uh, commitments around climate.
[00:06:49] Peter Geoghegan: L Sharm in fairness, was actually genuinely engaged on this issue. Britain could claim to be trying to move on. The conservative parties seem genuinely engaged in this issue. Yes, you have a few Brexit [00:07:00] cranks being cranks. ’cause cranks are gonna crank. Nothing to care about today. I sit in front of you tomorrow or the next day.
[00:07:07] Peter Geoghegan: I’m going to go into a room, I think, which I’m gonna go to one of the panel events at Reform Party conference if they still let me get in, actually after this, [00:07:15] after this event. Um, and it’s called, I think it’s called, is Climate Realism Inevitable? Um, and. The person who is chairing that event is the, uh, James Taylor, who’s the president of the Heartland Institute.
[00:07:28] Peter Geoghegan: The Heartland Institute is one of the [00:07:30] leading climate denial think tanks in the us. Huge links into, uh, into Trump administration, uh, funded by ExxonMobil who we heard more of earlier. Also on the panel is the Heartland Institute’s, uh, UK and [00:07:45] Europe President, who is one DA Lois Perry. The same Louis Perry whose fictitious AstroTurf think tank paid for the polling a few years ago on is net zero an issue.
[00:07:56] Peter Geoghegan: The reason I tell you this long spiel is we have got to a [00:08:00] situation where net zero is a political football in Britain, which it wasn’t before we have Kimmy Bad knocked the conservative leader talking about drill, baby drill. And Tessa might say more about this ’cause she wrote a very good LinkedIn post about how ridiculous that is.
[00:08:13] Peter Geoghegan: Uh, it was with regards to the N [00:08:15] Sea and almost empty basin at this point. Um. But the whole political landscape around net zero as in this country, has totally changed. And what’s also happened if interesting, and this is just a thought experiment for me, and I’d love to, particularly Amy, you can talk [00:08:30] about it, maybe watching your presentation, is has the fossil fuel industry actually lost control of its own narratives in that they’ve set this hair racing and it’s now been taken up.
[00:08:40] Peter Geoghegan: Like climate change denial is now a cra, it’s. It’s [00:08:45] metastasized into a position where some people who have no involvement with the fossil fuel industry Yeah. Who frankly hate the fossil fuel industry, um, are now, are now spouting some of this, you know, is, are at the forefront of this. Um, and at the same time you’ve [00:09:00] seen like there’s some crazy stuff happening and it’s kind of slightly subcutaneous.
[00:09:04] Peter Geoghegan: Richard t, who was the leader of the reform party, having given it loads of money. But then being kicked out a few, uh, uh, just before the general election, because Nigel Farage actually owns the company, the reform [00:09:15] priority. It’s really embarrassing. He kind of goes, when I’m now the, and he has to stand next to Richard Seis when he does it.
[00:09:19] Peter Geoghegan: It’s really funny. Um, but he’s brought in recently, he and I, the phraseology, I think he put on a formal warning, warning about these A seven, the A seven sails to do with, uh, wind, [00:09:30] wind, um, wind sails. But basically what he, what they’re doing is signaling around the future government. This is already happening.
[00:09:38] Peter Geoghegan: This is not hypothetical. And so what you’ve seen, which I find incredible, is almost four years to the day since the COP [00:09:45] conference. You have the party that’s in, um, is topping the poles in Britain, uh, is a party that is, uh. Is is putting net zero at the centerpiece and it’s, it will do anything. It’s incredible.
[00:09:59] Peter Geoghegan: It’s using [00:10:00] its last manifesto uses statistics from Chris Giles at the FT who said, these statistics are not correct. You basically, they, they. Put out these figures, um, saying this is the cost of net zero. And it was as if it was the government’s cost, and Chris Charles said, no, this is the total cost. [00:10:15] And also Chris Charles saying this is cheaper than the alternative to not to this cost.
[00:10:19] Peter Geoghegan: I’m not saying this is not a cost to be born, but this is the reality of where we are. So from where I am sitting. I’ve been, it’s been incredible to watch that change. And so I see the fossil fuel [00:10:30] lobbying for things the fossil fuel are gonna lobby for. I see the fossil fuel lobbying for, you know, tax breaks in the North Sea, et cetera, et cetera.
[00:10:36] Peter Geoghegan: But actually, when it comes to the most hardnosed climate denial. It’s this kind of transatlantic nexus. It’s all the sort of stuff I’m saying.
[00:10:44] Tori Tsui: [00:10:45] Yeah. Thank you. Yeah.
[00:10:47] Amy Westervelt: Yeah. Um, I don’t know if you’ve seen the push for, uh, average warming to be the new No,
[00:10:53] Peter Geoghegan: I’ve missed it.
[00:10:55] Amy Westervelt: Have you been watching this? Apparently New Zealand wants to push it.
[00:10:58] Amy Westervelt: Ireland is [00:11:00] actually pushing it as well. Um, it’s sort of an end run around net zero and especially around dealing with methane emissions. Because, um, everyone wants to push natural gas now. Um, excuse me, methane. [00:11:15] Um, um, so anyway, yeah, there’s, that’s like the new, the new thing. But to your point, yeah, I mean, um, I feel like there were some, some things recently that Indic that talked about [00:11:30] this thing of climate being pulled into the culture war stuff as a new thing, but really like.
[00:11:36] Amy Westervelt: You know, in the early nineties when there was momentum behind doing something about climate, the oil [00:11:45] companies funded a bunch of market research around which types of people are most open to this idea of. You know, the science isn’t really settled. We’re not really sure. Maybe this won’t even be that big of a [00:12:00] problem.
[00:12:00] Amy Westervelt: The solution is worse, like the, the cure is worse than the sickness. All of that kind of stuff. And they pinpointed very precisely two groups of people. It was, um, it was un uneducated young [00:12:15] women, and it was older. Uneducated white men, but particularly who believed that they understood the science, which is really, really, really interesting.
[00:12:27] Amy Westervelt: ’cause to me, I, I see that mapped right [00:12:30] onto the, like, do your own research people today, who, which I don’t think there’s anything wrong with doing your own research, if you know where to look for. Solid research that’s not been, you know, funded by someone with a particular agenda [00:12:45] or you know, how to figure out who did the funding and all that kind of stuff.
[00:12:47] Amy Westervelt: Very pro doing your own research. However, um, that’s not what these guys are doing. They’re, they’re like buying this line from industry. And again, that started in the early [00:13:00] nineties. So like, to me, I’m like, yeah, of course. Jordan Peterson is pushing that line now. And like of course all of the, you know, sort of, um, pod bros have embraced the [00:13:15] idea that like, climate equals, I mean, it’s a, it’s also like.
[00:13:19] Amy Westervelt: I think it’s, I mean, it’s a very handy scapegoat for what we’re actually experiencing, which is the impacts of late stage capitalism. You know, oh, everyone [00:13:30] is broker than they’ve ever been, but working more. That’s because of the climate elitist, um, pushing for who just wanna make your energy more expensive.
[00:13:39] Amy Westervelt: Let’s like focus it towards them instead of all of these like, big structural [00:13:45] problems that we don’t wanna deal with. Um. So anyway, yeah, I see it being pulled into, um, a bunch of these conversations because it, it’s become an easy target, but I also think that that’s the argument for [00:14:00] doing better cultural work around climate.
[00:14:03] Amy Westervelt: Yeah. Because none of, like, none of that is actually true and. Um, people aren’t gonna hear that message if it’s only being delivered via, you [00:14:15] know, scientists on the BBC or, um, you know, people from elite universities talking in, you know, um, liberal newspapers. Sure. Like, they’re just not, so, [00:14:30] yeah. And in terms of where we are, it’s bad, you know, we’ve blown past the 1.5.
[00:14:38] Amy Westervelt: Target. Um, and by the way, the industry was banking on it being too well [00:14:45] before they even committed to 1.5. So like mm-hmm. They never intended to hit that target. Um, also that was a, that was a poli, like that was a political compromise. If we were actually following the science on. Climate. [00:15:00] The goal is fucking zero guys, right?
[00:15:02] Amy Westervelt: Like the goal is zero. It’s not 1.5 or two. Um, now we’re at this place where we’ve blown past that we’re ratcheting up oil and gas production. [00:15:15] Everyone is banking on the ridiculous notion of overshoot, which is this idea that, oh, we can just blow past all these targets, but we’re gonna have cool new technology that sucks.
[00:15:23] Amy Westervelt: CO2 outta the air. We’re gonna like be able to reset. There’s absolutely no evidence that that will ever be possible, [00:15:30] um, at all. So it’s, yeah, that’s where we’re at and yeah. These guys are gonna keep doing it until, until they can’t. Like I don’t, at this point, I don’t even necessarily blame the fossil fuel companies ’cause [00:15:45] they’re doing what they have been.
[00:15:47] Amy Westervelt: Encouraged and incentivized and allowed to do like it is, it’s the job of, of government to protect the public interest. And they’re not doing that. Um, I mean, also, [00:16:00] please feel free to sue the companies.
[00:16:03] Tori Tsui: Yeah, I was. We’re on it. We’re on it.
[00:16:04] Climate litigation and public demand
[00:16:04] Tori Tsui: I was gonna say, Tessa, maybe this is a good chance to talk about climate litigation and perhaps some of the obstacles and challenges that we’re up against here.
[00:16:12] Tori Tsui: In the uk.
[00:16:14] Tessa Khan: Yeah, sure. [00:16:15] Um, just to, I think be, be crystal clear about what was implied in what Amy said about us blowing past safe climate limits. We cannot afford to develop any new oil, gas, or coal projects at this point. Like that is crystal [00:16:30] clear if we burn what is in existing. Oil and gas and coal reserves.
[00:16:34] Tessa Khan: We are way past where we have agreed, you know, again, as a political compromise is a safe climate. So at this point it is categorically true [00:16:45] that we cannot have new oil and gas. Projects in particular, um, if we are gonna have any semblance of a safe climate. So I think that’s, that’s kind of the starting point for our work.
[00:16:57] Tessa Khan: Um, and I think a useful starting point for [00:17:00] anyone who’s talking about this stuff in public, and that is a very robustly supported. Position, there is loads of peer reviewed science to support that. So you can feel very confident about demanding that that new oil and gas projects don’t get started. So that’s I think, [00:17:15] the first thing to say.
[00:17:16] Tessa Khan: I guess I kind of have some, some good news and I’ll kind of get to the litigation in a second. But I think that in a way it’s quite helpful that in the last year or so. The oil and gas industry has stopped pretending [00:17:30] that it’s interested in an energy transition. It’s you. You may have heard that companies like Shell and BP previously had renewable energy targets that they were aiming for in 20 and 30.
[00:17:41] Tessa Khan: All of that stuff is out the window. And in a way I think it’s [00:17:45] quite helpful for everyone to finally just have their cards on the table and we know who the bad guys are. They are not interested in anything other than their profits, regardless of what the cost is for the rest of us. And they’ve dropped, as I said, even any [00:18:00] pretense to be supporting a transition that is safe for everyone else.
[00:18:04] Tessa Khan: So it, you know, in a way that it, it was kind of upsetting at the time, but I actually think it’s swept away some of. Delusion that we can trust the oil and gas industry to put [00:18:15] us on the right track. So, in my view, kind of a helpful thing. The other thing that is kind of helpful in my view is that they are now openly entering into these alliances with techno fascists and ethno nationalists.
[00:18:27] Tessa Khan: You know, the fact that the reform party [00:18:30] in the UK is now a huge fan of, uh, starting a fracking industry to. To, to solve our energy affordability problems. You know, we could spend an hour talking about why that’s completely implausible. Um, but the Conservative Party [00:18:45] has also come out this week and said that they’d like to take all the breaks off oil and gas production in the North Sea to make that a cornerstone of the British economy.
[00:18:54] Tessa Khan: And again, you know, it, it currently is less than half a percent of. GDP in this country. [00:19:00] So good luck making that the cornerstone of your economy. Uh, but in any event, as I said, you know, this is bad for everybody’s brand, for all of these guys to be working together. So I think it’s helpful for us to build our movement and to really clarify exactly the kind of future that [00:19:15] they are collectively pushing for, which is in the interest of a very tiny group of people and deeply opposed to a livable future for the rest of us.
[00:19:22] Tessa Khan: Um, I will say the other thing is that in the last couple of years. You know, we’ve seen. [00:19:30] Household energy bills in the UK skyrocket in a way that has pushed millions of people into fuel poverty. So millions of households across the UK haven’t been able to heat their homes in winter, and that’s because the price of gas has gone up [00:19:45] and it has proved, I think once and for all.
[00:19:47] Tessa Khan: And this is born out actually by the polling. What people believe that fossil fuels are not a route to affordable, secure energy. What they’ve learned in the last few years is that fossil [00:20:00] fuels are what allow Russia to prosecute its war against Ukraine because its gas exports are what is basically financing its war coffers.
[00:20:09] Tessa Khan: Um, it’s also taught everyone that gas, even if we are producing gas here at [00:20:15] home. Isn’t something that we can control the price of. Uh, and that actually it’s what’s increasing our energy bills, not keeping us, uh, secure or in a position where we can afford to heat our homes. So that’s all being quite [00:20:30] good.
[00:20:30] Tessa Khan: And the polling does now show that people believe that renewable energy is both more likely to. Energy security and also affordable energy. So that’s, that’s, I should also say responsible for the oil and gas industry, which [00:20:45] in this country has for many years gotten away with basically riding policy, with riding in particular the tax regime that, um, it governs the industry, which is why in the UK before 2020.
[00:20:59] Tessa Khan: [00:21:00] The UK was the most profitable country in the world for offshore oil and gas production, which is astonishing given how mature the North Sea is as a basin. But that’s just because of the tax breaks that they got. And finally, in 2022, because people were so pissed off with how much. [00:21:15] Money the oil and gas industry was making while people couldn’t afford to heat their homes.
[00:21:19] Tessa Khan: A conservative government who have been friends of that industry for a long time introduced a windfall tax on the industry, and that’s taken tens of billions of value off [00:21:30] the oil and gas sector and has deterred investment. And we did that so we can do. And that’s because as I said, people are finally waking up to the fact that this is not an industry that’s working in our interest.
[00:21:40] Tessa Khan: Um, I will just say that I, I think, you know, litigation [00:21:45] is a really powerful tool. I’m a, I’m a lawyer, so you know, I’m inclined to think it has value and, uh, earlier this year, uplift together with. Greenpeace uk uh, successfully, legally challenged [00:22:00] the previous government’s decision to approve the Rosebank oil field.
[00:22:03] Tessa Khan: I’m gonna hope I get a moment to talk a bit more about Rosebank in a sec, but, um. But that was, you know, obviously that was a really important moment in demonstrating that the decision by [00:22:15] the last government to approve the UK’s largest undeveloped oil field in the middle of a climate crisis without taking into account the biggest environmental impact from developing that field, which is burning the oil and gas in that field is crazy and it’s also unlawful.
[00:22:29] Tessa Khan: Mm-hmm.
[00:22:29] Tori Tsui: [00:22:30] So
[00:22:30] Tessa Khan: that’s, that’s really helpful. Um, I will say though, that I think that. You know, litigation is a useful tool in our toolbox, but ultimately courts enforce the laws that our parliaments develop and, [00:22:45] uh, parliaments can change those laws. And unless we win the politics of this, unless we show that there is.
[00:22:53] Tessa Khan: Public demand for action on climate change, that there is a real political cost to approving new oil [00:23:00] and gas fields, then, you know, we can throw sand in the gears using litigation, but it’ll be very hard to slow this machine down for good. And that’s, you know, and I think that that is especially true when we now.
[00:23:12] Tessa Khan: Face the prospect of electing [00:23:15] fascists. So, you know, courts are of even less value when there’s no rule of law. So that’s why we’ve got, let me tell
[00:23:22] Amy Westervelt: you,
[00:23:23] Tessa Khan: we, we’ve gotta both do everything we can to hold this industry legally accountable. But we’ve got to, I think more importantly, [00:23:30] show that there is a massive, popular movement that wants this industry held accountable, that wants renewable energy, that wants to keep fossil fuels in the ground, and that’s gonna keep the fascists out.
[00:23:39] Tessa Khan: And that is the way that we win this once and for all.[00:23:45]
[00:23:47] Paris Agreement and climate realities
[00:23:47] Tori Tsui: Nathan, I’m gonna slightly modify the question for you, and I kind of want you to jump in and perhaps explain what the Paris Agreement is and perhaps what the sort [00:24:00] of loopholes are and why that those loopholes could be addressed by something like the fossil fuel treaty.
[00:24:08] Nathan Thanki: Sure thing. Um. I mean, yeah, I was there in Paris 10 years ago, and I remember I was actually trying to [00:24:15] look at some of the, the press release that I hit send on, uh, in December, 2015.
[00:24:20] Nathan Thanki: We weren’t celebrating the Paris Agreement 10 years ago. We were pretty critical of it. Uh, I think we called it a death sentence for people on planet. [00:24:30] Um, and I mean, I think it is a bit redundant in, in, in this setting too. To say much on the state of the climate. I just want to say one sentence on it.
[00:24:39] Nathan Thanki: Maybe it’s much worse than you think. Even those of us that [00:24:45] work in this field, even those of us that are informed, partly because our information itself has been through the. Intergovernmental, uh, panel on climate change. The premium body determining what climate [00:25:00] science is has itself been semi corrupted by fossil fuel interests.
[00:25:05] Nathan Thanki: So our, well, their projections and therefore our understanding of, uh, the state of the climate and its direction is, is much worse. The world [00:25:15] you think you’re living in does not exist anymore. Um, I think Kevin Anderson.
[00:25:21] The dire state of climate change
[00:25:21] Nathan Thanki: Probably, you know, four, uh, most, uh, British climate scientists says we’re on track for a world, uh, like a degree of warming in the world that is incompatible with organized human activity.
[00:25:36] Nathan Thanki: Like we will not have civilization. So that’s the level that we’re talking about, and I think it’s just important to like, recognize that for me that is incentive to fight even [00:25:45] harder rather than give up. Um, but I can understand how it’s bleak, but you gotta get your head around it. There’s no way around it.
[00:25:52] Nathan Thanki: You gotta go, you know, you gotta go through it. Um, I did, yeah. I want to say a few things about, about Paris, um, [00:26:00] itself. Uh, but I just, yeah, I mean, like, we’ll get that in a second and I’m gonna front load a lot of my comments, I think, and then be shorter later.
[00:26:11] Fossil fuel industry’s record profits
[00:26:11] Nathan Thanki: It’s sort of like the best of times, worst of times for the fossil fuel industry.
[00:26:15] Nathan Thanki: Today. Um, best of times in the sense like they are, as, as we’ve mentioned, um, it’s record breaking profits for them. They’ve never seen so much money. Uh, they have never seen. Um, so [00:26:30] much of our money, it’s public subsidies. I’ll just give you some figures here. They’re getting 7 trillion a year in subsidies of our money.
[00:26:37] Nathan Thanki: The in 2022 4 trillion, uh, in, in net income. Uh, just in that year, um, banks are increasing [00:26:45] fossil fuel financing. There’s interesting report from oil change International. Um, 162.5 billion from in the year 2023. 2024. Um, so the total that, uh, banks have given to the fossil fuel industry [00:27:00] since the Paris Agreement was signed is close to $8 trillion.
[00:27:02] Nathan Thanki: Jesus. Yeah. Uh, last year US banks committed 289 billion. Um, while here in in Britain, uh, you will have heard of Barclays and you know that their role in lots of [00:27:15] heinous things is, is quite great. They were giving them to the tune of, um, 35.4 billion HSBC and other British bank also, uh, in the tens of billions they are planning and because of all [00:27:30] this money, they are planning to extract more fossil fuels, double the amount of fossil fuels.
[00:27:37] Nathan Thanki: That is compatible with a 1.5 degree world, which as we’ve already established is not [00:27:45] safe. This is not a real, like basis in, uh, impact. And, and climate scientists is a political figure. No degree of warming is safe. But for 1.5 we are. Committing to burn double the amount of fossil fuels, [00:28:00] uh, then is compatible with that.
[00:28:01] Nathan Thanki: That’s the, um, the production gap report from the United Nations, uh, environment program. You think that maybe that’s billions of people now suddenly getting access to, [00:28:15] um, you know, hospitals improving standards of living, et cetera, ’cause of. The myth that fossil fuels provide for people, they’re still 2 billion people with either no or inadequate access to electricity after several hundred years of [00:28:30] fossil fuel development.
[00:28:31] Nathan Thanki: So it’s not because they haven’t gotten enough fossil fuels yet. It’s because that system does not actually, and is not intended to provide for everybody. Um, but you think it may be, oh, okay. All [00:28:45] of this plant fossil fuels is in the developing world to help people lift outta poverty, et cetera. It’s not, it’s the 10 highest income countries that are really, uh, standing to, uh, blow us past the 1.5.
[00:28:57] Nathan Thanki: Degree, budget, um, principally the [00:29:00] US and Canada, if we’re really honest with ourselves.
[00:29:03] The Paris Agreement’s flaws
[00:29:03] Nathan Thanki: But I do want to get to Tori’s point about, um, Paris Agreement. Paris Agreement doesn’t commit countries. The, the words fossil fuels are not anywhere to be seen in the Paris Agreement. It’s not a, uh, legal architecture that was designed to address fossil fuel extraction.
[00:29:20] Nathan Thanki: Uh, it instead. Rests on premises of net zero of overshoot, of offsetting, of using the market [00:29:30] to plant some trees somewhere else or to magically, you know, write off essentially real emissions from actually burning carbon. Um, and that’s a pretty fatal flaw if you, if you ask me. [00:29:45] Um, it also is, uh, entirely dependent on countries doing everything themself.
[00:29:49] Nathan Thanki: You know, it’s just nationally determined. You be the judge, jury, and literal executioner, uh, rather than having a top down, you know, timetable, science-based approach. [00:30:00] And I think the real kicker is that because the narrative around Paris, it’s not that it’s completely useless. The consensus has sort of met in the middle.
[00:30:08] Nathan Thanki: There’s been a bit of dialectic, uh, gone on. And we’ve said, you know, far from the 10 year ago press [00:30:15] release of this is a disaster actually. This is some, provides some framework for us and provides some legal foothold for us, uh, as campaigners and as advocates and as people, um, changing policy. But it has also created inadvertently, [00:30:30] um, a sort of complacency because Sure.
[00:30:32] Nathan Thanki: Did they not sort that out 10 years ago? Thought we had the Paris agreement, but no. In fact they did not sort it out. Um. I wanna say a few things about. So say it’s best times, worst of times.
[00:30:43] Public opinion shifts against fossil fuels
[00:30:43] Nathan Thanki: I wanna pick up on a few things that have been said already about how this is actually, um, a, a difficult moment for the fossil fuel industry.
[00:30:51] Nathan Thanki: There is this shift in majority, uh, public opinion worldwide, both around the climate crisis itself, but also [00:31:00] around the role of fossil fuels and also around the. Uh, compared to the potential benefits of renewables. Um, and there is a big effort I think to, you know, point out this propaganda. Amy’s work is sort of pioneering, but others are coming in [00:31:15] behind to also, uh, you know, make this case and really expose the antics that have gone on and expose the connections between all of these industries.
[00:31:23] Nathan Thanki: ’cause it’s not just fossil fuels. They are wrapped up. Fossil fuels are the sort of crux or they, they’re, they’re [00:31:30] the linchpin of, um. You know, the military industrial complex globally. So it’s uh, yeah, it’s no surprise that they’re sort of got their fingers and everything. We have seen some, um, advances in the last few years.
[00:31:43] Nathan Thanki: We did at COP 28, [00:31:45] 2 years ago in Dubai, have a commitment to triple renewable energy by 2030 to double the energy efficiency and two. Transition away from fossil fuels in the energy system. So it’s leading with loopholes and [00:32:00] problems and assumptions that are, you know, that we’re gonna sock the carbon out of the air literally, and then bury it somewhere.
[00:32:06] Nathan Thanki: Like it does not, the technology doesn’t exist to do this at scale, and if it did, it would require several planet earths. [00:32:15] Uh, but we don’t have several planet earths. So instead it requires the land of. You know, indigenous peoples and the remaining forested land and, uh, sort of like thriving ecosystems on this planet.
[00:32:26] Nathan Thanki: So it’s kind of a non-starter. It’s also not cost [00:32:30] effective. Um, and it also just allows and is funded by the fossil fuel industry as a means to distract and to allow them to continue business as usual so they will adapt. And because of all of our successes [00:32:45] and because of the shifting in public opinion.
[00:32:48] Nathan Thanki: Uh, and the exposure because of things like the International Court of Justice advisory opinion, which also makes really clear that nations will have, um, response. They will be in breach of responsibilities, and they will [00:33:00] be held responsible in a legal fashion for continuing to expand their fossil fuel industries.
[00:33:05] Nathan Thanki: Because of all of this, the industry of fossil fuels has to change, and it is changing. Um, and it’s, yeah, it’s perfect. It’s gonna provoke resistance. It’s not just about like [00:33:15] shifts in the market and sort of techno fixes. This is about the reordering of the entire global political order that’s gonna see resistance from the fossil fuel old guard.
[00:33:26] Nathan Thanki: From the us Saudi Russia, uh, while [00:33:30] there’s a sort of emergence and China really controls, uh, and has seen as a sort of geopolitical strategic advantage, the control of the entire production line around, uh, renewable energy. So this is a massive threat and it’s [00:33:45] gonna cause big ripples this century.
[00:33:48] Tori Tsui: Yeah.
[00:33:48] Tori Tsui: Thank you. So I’m gonna pivot now to this sort of overarching feeling of, oh God, there is so much here, but what do we actually do and, and what wins have we had? I [00:34:00] know, I know. Nobody panic. Um, and I think that, you know. Kind of building off what Nathan was talking about.
[00:34:08] The Rosebank Oil Field controversy
[00:34:08] Tori Tsui: Perhaps I’ll start with something very, very cheerful, which is, um, obviously the Stop Rose Bank court case.
[00:34:14] Tori Tsui: And I know [00:34:15] Tessa, you briefly started speaking about it, but I’d love for you to elaborate on what went down, um, and, and also perhaps even talk about the Sarah Finch case in scopes, readmissions and how that kind of formed the basis of winning the court case.
[00:34:28] Tessa Khan: Yeah, sure. [00:34:30] Um. So I’m just gonna start by saying a few words about, uh, the Rosebank oil field.
[00:34:35] Tessa Khan: And I apologize to those of you who have heard me banging on about this for the last couple of years, but just gonna run through the numbers for you all so you know exactly what we’re [00:34:45] dealing with, um, and why it’s such a disaster. So Rosebank is the largest undeveloped. Oil field in the uk. Uh, it is off the coast of Scotland.
[00:34:57] Tessa Khan: It is about 500 million [00:35:00] barrels of oil and gas that will predominantly 90% oil that would end up being extracted and burnt. If Rose Bank goes ahead. That would create, uh, carbon emissions that are equivalent to running 56 coal fired power [00:35:15] stations for a year. Or another way of thinking of it is.
[00:35:19] Tessa Khan: Emissions that are equivalent to, uh, the annual emissions of the 28 poorest countries in the world. So there is a different ways of saying that. It’s a lot, it’s really bad, um, but it’s not just [00:35:30] bad because of the climate impact that it will have. Developing rosebank also involves giving. Massive tax breaks to the companies that are trying to develop that field.
[00:35:41] Tessa Khan: So some analysis that WWF Norway has [00:35:45] done has shown, ’cause you’ll often hear the UK government say, oh no, we need these new oil and gas fields ’cause it’s good for our economy. It’s gonna bring in all of this much needed revenue for the treasury so we can support the NHS and so on. In fact, if, uh, over the course of [00:36:00] Rose Banks.
[00:36:00] Tessa Khan: Lifetime because of the tax breaks involved, it will likely lead to a net loss of more than 200 million pounds to the UK Treasury if the oil price kind of stays at basically the average level. So that’s [00:36:15] not a positive thing for the British public. It is a drain. Um, the other thing to say about Rosebank is that the companies involved are eor.
[00:36:26] Tessa Khan: Which is a Norwegian state owned oil company [00:36:30] that’s very large, very profitable. Um, and it will lead to Norwegian pensioners who are already, I would say, some of the best off pensioners in the world. If you wanna grow old Norway is a good country to do it. Um, rose bank’s [00:36:45] profits will largely benefit Norwegian pensioners, but some of them will also likely flow to the parent company of the.
[00:36:53] Tessa Khan: Other company that’s involved in developing Rosebank, that company is called Ithaca Energy and its parent company is. [00:37:00] An Israeli company called Delic, which has been highlighted by the un, um, for human rights violations being committed in occupied territories in Palestine, uh, [00:37:15] and Delic Group. The parent company of Ithaca also has a subsidiary that is.
[00:37:21] Tessa Khan: Providing fuel to the IDF, uh, at a time, obviously that the IDF is committing genocide. So another reason [00:37:30] for us to, all I would say vociferously oppose the profits that Rosebank will create for the companies involved. Um, finally, you might also hear in the press from the oil companies and their [00:37:45] champions in British politics, that we need rosebank for energy security.
[00:37:50] Tessa Khan: Rose Bank’s oil is gonna be exported as is more than 80% of the oil that we produce in the uk. So, so much for that argument. Um, and also [00:38:00] it’s not gonna make a difference at all to the price that we pay for oil or gas here because the amount involved. Isn’t enough to shift markets in any meaningful way.
[00:38:09] Tessa Khan: So it’s not making our energy bills lower, it’s not making us anymore energy secure. Um, and so [00:38:15] that’s why, you know, we are pretty pissed off about the prospect of Rosebank being developed. Mm-hmm. It’s why we took the case to, to court, um, together with Greenpeace uk and we were lucky to build on a recent case.
[00:38:28] Tessa Khan: In the UK [00:38:30] Supreme Court last year, uh, in which an incredibly courageous campaigner, a woman called Sarah Finch, unbelievably tenacious in the face of persistent legal defeats that many of us have had over years in which basically [00:38:45] courts have said that it’s fine for the government to approve these massive new fossil fuel projects without taking into account.
[00:38:51] Tessa Khan: The single biggest environmental harm from these projects, which is what happens when you burn the fossil fuels within them. Um, so the Supreme Court [00:39:00] was like, that’s insane. Uh, doesn’t make any sense. Let’s make sure that in future, if we’re gonna approve these projects, we do need to at least rationalize why we are doing that in light of the emissions that they’re creating.
[00:39:13] Tessa Khan: So that’s what Sarah [00:39:15] managed. We took advantage of that in the arguments that we made in court, and that’s why the Scottish Court of session in January this year, uh, agreed with us that it was an invalid decision to approve Rosebank back in 2023. But the fight isn’t over yet [00:39:30] because, uh, the developers are now free to resubmit.
[00:39:34] Tessa Khan: So EOR and Ithaca are free to resubmit their application to develop rosebank, which we expect they’ll do in the next couple of months. This time they will tell us how much carbon [00:39:45] pollution is caused by burning rosebank oil. But they’re hopeful that the UK government, uh, obsessed as it is with all the wrong things like, uh, growth for growth sake, um, and so on will decide it’s in our interest to approve rosebank.
[00:39:59] Tessa Khan: And [00:40:00] that’s why the fight isn’t over yet. Um, there is a. Massive movement in this country of people who think that this oil field is a stupid idea. There were more than a million people who signed a petition that was handed in to number 10, uh, opposing [00:40:15] rosebank. We just had, thanks to the folks at Earth, percent more than a hundred amazing artists and musicians, right?
[00:40:20] Tessa Khan: To k Stara to tell ’em it’s a terrible idea. To approve this project. There have been literally tens of thousands, tens of thousands of mentions in the media, [00:40:30] dozens of mentions in parliament about rosebank, questioning why we’d even be considering it. Uh, dozens of actions up and down this country with.
[00:40:38] Tessa Khan: Ordinary people, including like a bunch of kind of elderly women who have decided to just [00:40:45] knit in EOR headquarters, uh, in Aberdeen. So there’s something for everyone in this campaign. But the good news is that there is another day of action on the 6th of September. Uh, so right around the corner, um, if you go to the Stop Rosebank [00:41:00] website, you can find out how to join.
[00:41:01] Tessa Khan: The thousands, millions of other people who don’t wanna see the oil coming out of the ground, uh, in relation to this stupid oil field. So please join us. We need all of you. Um, as I said, the [00:41:15] only way we’re gonna win this fight or the fight against oil and gas in general is not in the courts. It’s not in the press, it is by.
[00:41:22] Tessa Khan: Demonstrating to our governments that the political cost of saying yes to this stuff is too high and we will not support it. There is a political price [00:41:30] that they’ll have to pay if they support it. And so your voice matters more than anything else. And I really encourage you all to say something. Uh, I, um, would also just add that I think the other thing that it’s really [00:41:45] important and the, you know, another big obstacle for us.
[00:41:47] The need for a just transition
[00:41:47] Tessa Khan: Forget the propaganda, forget the kind of, uh, attempts to influence governments in all kinds of covert ways that the oil and gas industry is up to a genuine challenge that we have ahead of us that Amy alluded to [00:42:00] earlier, is the fact that in a country like the uk, which has a sizable oil and gas industry, we’ve now left it so late that there is a.
[00:42:08] Tessa Khan: Real challenge on our hands with making sure that there is a transition for the tens of thousands of people who [00:42:15] rely on that industry for their jobs or for their livelihoods in an indirect way. And the communities that are in particular in parts of this country that have been de-industrialized left behind already.
[00:42:27] Tessa Khan: And you know, if you look for example, the legacy of. [00:42:30] Coal mines closing down in this country. They are the communities that voted for Brexit, that reform is now targeting. Sure. You know, we cannot let this happen again. And the good news is that it is possible for us to look after, not the oil and gas [00:42:45] bosses who, as far as I’m concerned, uh, can deal with the aftermath of all of this on their own.
[00:42:50] Tessa Khan: But for the people in the workforce, there are countries that have done this successfully, that have provided transition pathways retraining. Reskilling, you know, [00:43:00] making the most of the fact that there are these alternative industries. We’re so lucky in the UK that we have got some of the best offshore wind resources in the world.
[00:43:07] Tessa Khan: Literally a fifth of global offshore wind capacity is off Scottish waters, and that is the ideal [00:43:15] industry into which to. Oil and gas workers in particular can transition. There’s loads of skills overlap anyway. The solution is there, but we need a government that is bold enough to actually make this a priority, and it’s the first of the many industrial transitions that we have [00:43:30] to engage in if we’re gonna solve this crisis, which involves us transitioning away from what is currently the material backbone of our economy, which is fossil fuels.
[00:43:37] Tessa Khan: So we need to get this stuff right. We need the British government to. Invest in a transition to listen to what those [00:43:45] workers and communities need, and we all need to call for them to be supported. We need to stand with trade unions. We need to make it clear that we are not here to throw anyone under the bus, but that this is a collective fight.
[00:43:58] Tessa Khan: And I genuinely believe that if the [00:44:00] climate movement and the trade union movement can join forces on this issue and in general, then we can also defeat. The fascist, so that’s a bonus. Yes. So that’s something that
[00:44:11] Amy Westervelt: I think we should all really be focusing on. Thank you. Thank you. Are they [00:44:15] gonna, why, why don’t they use the windfall tax to fund helping these communities transition?
[00:44:20] Tessa Khan: They’re currently using the windfall tax to help people pay their household energy bills, which are their cash bills. So that’s good. Yeah. I mean, it’s, it. Just, it is gonna require a bit more money. Yeah. [00:44:30] Luckily there are loads of wealthy people in this country that we could tax, for example, as a way of finding that money.
[00:44:34] Tessa Khan: So, no, no shortage of money to do this stuff.
[00:44:39] Tori Tsui: Thank you, Tessa. Um, so for those who don’t remember, 6th of September. Uh, [00:44:45] rose Bank Stop, rose Bank Day of Action right around the corner.
[00:44:48] The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty
[00:44:48] Tori Tsui: Uh, Nathan, I want to turn to you to talk about the fossil fuel treaty and what it is, what it stands for, and perhaps ways that people in the audience can support endorse.
[00:44:58] Nathan Thanki: Yeah, sure. [00:45:00] Um, so I think because there, as I mentioned, there is no existing legal architecture to address fossil fuels. We have to imagine one and for a long time, actually, small Pacific Islands, uh, particularly Vanuatu, uh, [00:45:15] which has just a ginormously outsized impact in international law and particularly environmental law.
[00:45:21] Nathan Thanki: It has brought this case, uh, or, or the push for the advisory opinion at the ICJ. It has also got, its. You know, iron in the [00:45:30] fire of an initiative to create a, a non-proliferation treaty. So Mo very much modeled on the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, uh, but applied to fossil fuels. So we firmly believe that, as Tesa has said, there has [00:45:45] to be no new fossil fuels.
[00:45:46] Nathan Thanki: When you’re in a hole, you have to stop digging, not you can’t dig up, you stop digging. And, uh, but we also have to phase out and, uh, have a managed decline of the existing production. And this has got to be done [00:46:00] in a fair way, not just within each country. And there, there are challenges around just transition even in a wealthy, industrialized country like Britain.
[00:46:09] Nathan Thanki: Can you imagine that in a country that is reliant on fossil fuels for 90% of its GDP, [00:46:15] like in Iran or in Iraq or a Venezuela, um, where you also have cycles in some of those countries of debt traps that are in place, not because. Just of dictators or people are stupid or anything like that. [00:46:30] It’s by design.
[00:46:31] Nathan Thanki: It is a legacy of colonialism that these countries have been indebted and are now servicing their debts and reliant on fossil fuels, not to heat their homes, not to run their a c, not to make hospitals, but to service those [00:46:45] debts. So they make the money on it, but the money goes immediately outta the country.
[00:46:49] Nathan Thanki: So in a world where this is the situation, and we are in vastly different positions. Uh, within countries and between countries with regards to actually doing this [00:47:00] transition and phasing away, we need to have an organized, uh, manner in which we do that phase out in which we manage the transition. I think what the panel maybe has made clear to you today is a transition is coming, like it is locked in.
[00:47:12] Nathan Thanki: There’ll be some more delay tactics and whatnot, but those delay [00:47:15] tactics are actually testament to the fact that that transition is inevitable. What is not inevitable is that that transition will be fair for the world. If it’s not fair for the world, people will not support it and there will be uprisings against it, which is [00:47:30] obviously not what we want.
[00:47:31] Nathan Thanki: So it has to be, uh, a fair transition. To do that, you need international cooperation. Uh, you need the transfer of finance. You need the transfer of, um, o of inter international, of intellectual property. You need a, [00:47:45] uh, transfer of capacity to be able to, to really realize this transition. So that is the vision of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty.
[00:47:53] Nathan Thanki: Uh, there’s 17 countries that are supporting that. There’s a million people have endorsed it. 4,000, uh, civil Society [00:48:00] Organizations, 101 Nobel Laureates. Like we can go on and on and on. To some degree, those can be vanity metrics. Uh, these are just big numbers to impress you, and I hope you are impressed by them because it is impressive.
[00:48:11] Nathan Thanki: But we are now at a phase where we’re making this more [00:48:15] real, where next year, uh, ideally and hopefully there will be a, a conference specifically aimed at, uh, you know, bringing this into reality by those countries. So led by the likes of Columbia, [00:48:30] which is a fossil fuel producer, it’s not a small task. If you, 30% of your GDP is derived from fossil fuels for you to just say, yeah, we wanna phase out.
[00:48:39] Nathan Thanki: The countries want to phase out, but they’re not in a position to do so. The idea of the treaty is to [00:48:45] let them be in that position and it’s, you know, five years ago we couldn’t say the word fossil fuel in the un.
[00:48:51] Tori Tsui: Yep.
[00:48:51] Nathan Thanki: Now we’re in the brink of, uh, embarking on a treaty negotiation.
[00:48:55] Tori Tsui: Thank you so much, Nathan.
[00:48:57] Tori Tsui: It was really exciting.
[00:48:59] Political Influence and Fossil Fuels
[00:48:59] Tori Tsui: Um, before we head to the q and a, you have a very small amount of time, Peter, because I really, really want you to talk on this, this sort of, um, intersection between, uh. Reforms links to the fossil fuel industry and actually how that could be a sticking point for voters. And how can we sort of, um, harness that for our benefit as people who fight against the fossil fuel industry.
[00:49:22] Peter Geoghegan: Yeah, there was some really interesting research done. Uh. Uh, um, not long ago by, uh, an organization called Persuasion [00:49:30] uk. And they were looking at reform votes in particular, looking at what messages might chime reform voters. And it was really, it was fascinating. They, they showed reform voters labor, immigration ads.
[00:49:40] Peter Geoghegan: I. And reform voters were more likely our reform, curious people were more likely to want to vote [00:49:45] reform after watching the labor ads, which I thought was really interesting. There’s these ads about like stopping the boats and stuff. It made them more salient and there’s a number of other ones and, and that was, that had a signif statistically significant.
[00:49:56] Peter Geoghegan: In the opposite direction. And the rest of ’em were not statistically significant except for [00:50:00] one. And it was an advert that was about the relationship between political donors, the reform party, and the fossil fuel industry. So some of the, um, so the conservative Party, as Tessa mentioned, have actually taken huge amounts of money from the fossil fuel industry itself.
[00:50:13] Peter Geoghegan: Um. Reform is more [00:50:15] recent than, but it has donors who definitely have fossil fuel links. Some about 50% of their donors have links to fossil fuel industry, either have shareholdings in it or, or some of ’em are actually very big, like David Lilly, who’s a, uh, he’s a kind of mag uh, mining magnet who’s like very, very kind of [00:50:30] intimately connected to fossil fuel industry.
[00:50:32] Peter Geoghegan: And when they showed people that, and adverts and messages around the link. Between the party and the fossil fuel industry, people are statistically less likely to be, want to support the party, which I thought was very interesting. And does suggest that like people [00:50:45] in the fossil fuel industry are not popular.
[00:50:46] Peter Geoghegan: People don’t like the fossil fuel industry. People don’t go God shell a great bunch of people no matter what they, whatever. No matter what they What about jazz? Yeah, yeah. You know? Yes. They love the jazz. I, and so there’s something I think that was quite interesting actually. It does suggest [00:51:00] that like some of these narratives, there is a space for, for a narrative change around some of these things.
[00:51:05] Tori Tsui: Thank you. Yeah, it’s fascinating.
[00:51:08] Conclusion
[00:51:08] Tori Tsui: So thank you so much to all of our brilliant panelists.
[00:51:14] Maryam Pasha: Thank you [00:51:15] for joining us this week. We really hope you’ve enjoyed this episode.
[00:51:18] Ben Hurst: If you did, please hit the follow button to make sure that you get next week’s releases. While you’re at it, please leave a rating and a review.
[00:51:26] Maryam Pasha: Now let’s shout out to our fabulous team behind the poll
[00:51:29] Ben Hurst: [00:51:30] Executive produced by Josie Colter,
[00:51:31] Maryam Pasha: Produced by Ben Beheshty.
[00:51:33] Ben Hurst: Music, also by Ben Beheshty,
[00:51:35] Maryam Pasha: Communications by Tara Cooper and Issey Gladston.
[00:51:38] Ben Hurst: Curation by Deesha Chandra,
[00:51:40] Maryam Pasha: Hosted by Ben Hurst.
[00:51:42] Ben Hurst: and Maryam Pasha,
[00:51:43] Maryam Pasha: and remember,
[00:51:44] Ben Hurst: [00:51:45] stay curious.
