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“We should be as optimistic as they [Big Oil] are,” says economist, diplomat, key architect of the Paris Agreement, and climate heavy-hitter Laurence Tubiana. Having spent decades navigating the political domain of global climate policy, in this Climate Curious short she dives into why the current “down cycle” of climate action is reflective of fear in the fossil fuel industry and should be viewed with optimism; as well as how the secret to resilience is in listening to the people around you. Finally Laurence shares how the “golden moment” for fossil fuels is coming to an end, and how we can reclaim control over our own future. Recorded live in London in conversation with co-hosts Maryam Pasha and Ben Hurst at Climate Curious Live: The OGs Edition.
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Created by TEDxLondon
Executive produced by Josie Colter
Produced by Ben Beheshty
Curated by Deesha Chandra
Hosted by Maryam Pasha and Ben Hurst
Communications by Tara Cooper and Issey Gladston
00:00 Why the ‘down cycle’ might be good news
00:51 From Paris to people power: citizen assemblies that change minds
02:52 Local wins in Poland: clean air votes, firefighters, and coal-to-clean shifts
04:23 Turn public energy into political ‘noise’: why pushback can spark resistance
04:58 What to do in a down cycle: clear-eyed thinking (and a little humour)
05:59 Lessons after copenhagen: build resilience, networks, and agency
09:18 Big Oil’s aggression = fear: the COP anecdote and why optimism Is rational
11:11 Wrap-up
Why the ‘down cycle’ might be good news
[00:00:00] Maryam Pasha: Welcome to Climate Curious Quickies, bite-sized Nuggets of Climate Goodness. From our TEDx experts in under 10 minutes
[00:00:09] Ben Hurst: in this week’s climate Curious, we are joined by a climate OG on a tough one, [00:00:15] how to keep pushing when it feels like climate action is on a down cycle. And who better to guide us down this path than an absolute legend of the climate movement?
[00:00:24] Ben Hurst: Key architect of the Landmark Paris Agreement, the economist and diplomat Lauren [00:00:30] Ian Laurence, joined us live on stage to share why the aggression from big oil is. Actually signaling fear and why the climate down cycle could be good news on how we start winning the ideological battle for the planet.
[00:00:44] Ben Hurst: [00:00:45] Here’s our conversation with Lawrence to bna. Stay curious.
From Paris to People Power: Citizen Assemblies That Change Minds
[00:00:51] Laurence Tubiana: I was of course very happy. You see the, the picture on the Paris agreement, everybody dancing, even Nicola Stern and algo dancing. You know, that’s not, [00:01:00] you see this every day and then. Uh, I had the same emotion when I chair the citizen assembly on climate change in France 150 citizen, [00:01:15] who were absolutely ignorant of climate change.
[00:01:18] Laurence Tubiana: Well, they read the press from all over the country, different household origin, different age. And when they came, they were very [00:01:30] reluctant. It was after the yellow vest movement, you refer to Tesa. And so they were, is this a manipulation of the government? So various style. And then they listened to scientists and then they began to understand that they have a huge [00:01:45] responsibility in proposing solutions.
[00:01:47] Laurence Tubiana: And they worked the whole year because of COVID time and they were working in the weekends, having webs webinars in the night. At their home and you see [00:02:00] 150 people transformed by that. You have had that, uh, convention in UK with a parliament, but that was different. It was addressed to the government. And you saw people who said, you know, when I was [00:02:15] young, and sorry, because I repeat the story too, when I was young, I rent My Future was a house and a car.
[00:02:26] Laurence Tubiana: And so that was my life, my progress. And now [00:02:30] I want to fight the echo side. And you know, it was a guy, a very nice guy, just ignore and he said, I never, I was not knowing that people were so motivated and fighting for environment, it’s [00:02:45] a discovery. And all the citizen were changed after that. And that a wonderful thing to see.
Local Wins in Poland: Clean Air Votes, Firefighters, and Coal-to-Clean Shifts
[00:02:52] Laurence Tubiana: But there are many more stories. The stories of, you know, crack off city in Poland, a lot of [00:03:00] pollution of air. And, you know, this, uh, low emission zone is a very conflictual element. And then because they, they make a vote, they, they have a citizen assembly there, and they decided that we’ll ban very polluting [00:03:15] cars in France.
[00:03:16] Laurence Tubiana: It’s a drama in Poland because it’s government decided, or, or, you know, authority deciding. And they decided themselves and to, and it’s very smooth. Mm. They, because they. Take, [00:03:30] took back control. So, and you know, there are many stories, a firefighter in a small region of Poland embracing and having the grandmothers working with them against the fires and explaining themselves a firefighter of a [00:03:45] really small place, place saying it’s climate change and we have to fight that in its call.
[00:03:51] Laurence Tubiana: Or a guy. From a electricity company, the, the biggest one in Poland, saying that he wanted to go clean [00:04:00] because his, uh, daughters and, and, and, and children were saying, what are you doing? You are polluting so much. It was a cold company, of course. And then he said, we will try a social experiment to really find job for the 1000 people [00:04:15] working in the mine, 1000 working in.
[00:04:17] Laurence Tubiana: In this company all over Poland. And so you see the energy in the society.
Turn Public Energy into Political ‘Noise’: Why Pushback Can Spark Resistance
[00:04:23] Laurence Tubiana: So we should say to government, you know, in politics the important thing is new ance. If you are not a new, they don’t listen to you. So we have to organize the new of the people and you know that my. My bet. Yes, we are the lose cycle and the big guys here and there they are a manas.
[00:04:44] Laurence Tubiana: And that’s [00:04:45] good because people don’t want to be, you know, under threat. And they stand up. But that’s a moment to do it because it could go very, very badly.
[00:04:54] Ben Hurst: I can get hambi in a nuisance. That’s like, yeah, yeah. That seems like fun. That sounds like fun.
What to Do in a Down Cycle: Clear-Eyed Thinking (and a Little Humor)
[00:04:58] Maryam Pasha: Let me end by [00:05:00] asking you this question, ’cause you know, Laurent, this, this, uh, theme and this evening was actually kinda inspired by a conversation we had where you talked about these cycles and you said, if you’ve been in this as long as I have, you know that it’s not straight line.
[00:05:12] Maryam Pasha: And, and then, and there are things you do when you’re on the [00:05:15] down cycle to get ready for the next time the upcycle comes. And I’m just wondering whether you might have some advice for people who are feeling like, I don’t know what I should be doing right now. Yeah.
[00:05:26] Ben Hurst: For those of us who are stuck in our first down cycle.
[00:05:29] Ben Hurst: Yeah. What, what [00:05:30] do we do? And that can be, we’ve never seen the other side of it be, we dunno what personal.
[00:05:32] Maryam Pasha: That doesn’t
[00:05:33] Ben Hurst: have to be work. Work. That could
[00:05:34] Maryam Pasha: be resilience.
[00:05:35] Ben Hurst: We’re
[00:05:35] Maryam Pasha: just curious.
[00:05:36] Laurence Tubiana: Don’t drink, don’t drink, don’t take cocaine. Don’t take,
[00:05:40] Ben Hurst: but no, be serious. Don’t say things like that because [00:05:45] people should be allowed to take whatever recreational drugs they feel are necessary to survive the harsh conditions that we are existing in.
[00:05:53] Laurence Tubiana: No, but look, look at the impact on Elon Musk.
[00:05:56] Ben Hurst: True? Yeah. True. Good, good observation. Warning. Warning. Yeah. Yeah, yeah.
[00:05:59] Laurence Tubiana: Yeah.
Lessons After Copenhagen: Build Resilience, Networks, and Agency
[00:05:59] Laurence Tubiana: So, uh, in a way, uh, I think, uh, one is to clear eye, think. The moment of the down cycle, you know, our resource is our brain and our the first one. So read, look at it, look at the stories.
[00:06:18] Laurence Tubiana: Look at the what is happening in the world. Don’t try to close your eyes, even if it’s terrifying, because when you look and you think, and you look at the long history, that’s why it’s so important to look [00:06:30] backwards. And not only forward and say, you know, we have been through this so many things and there are always resources that will finally come back.
[00:06:39] Laurence Tubiana: So just learn from the past. And again, I can tell after [00:06:45] Copenhagen 2009, I was, well, it was tough, huh? I was tough. So LA the hours of no sleep trying to convince the US not to play band and for nothing. Good [00:07:00] friend, by the way, at that time, but they don’t care. They thought that they could be. Between the big countries solve everything.
[00:07:08] Laurence Tubiana: So it was tough after that and the NGOs were totally depressed. The press didn’t want to even talk about climate change [00:07:15] because they were so disappointed. After we say, this is a moment where we will save the world. You don’t save the world in one element or two cops or never. It’s a long process. Second, we need, because we are in dangerous [00:07:30] times here in France, next year in Spain.
[00:07:35] Laurence Tubiana: Next year too in Poland, in Italy, what already there. Um, and maybe with good things that will happen in Hungary these first [00:07:45] days. So we need to build the infrastructure and the resistance of people, and that’s a work for lawyers. And for the connection and for the vicinity, you have to really rebuild relation if you have stopped doing [00:08:00] that.
[00:08:00] Laurence Tubiana: So that’s the force. And then to make people understand they can, they have agency. They can do things by demonstration, by building their own projects. Uh, I, I understand [00:08:15] that floodings now people want to prepare and react. People are, you know, and was these terrible things in Valencia to so many die dying people.
[00:08:25] Laurence Tubiana: 200 more than 200. And people now feel that they [00:08:30] have to protest about the regional policies and that gives them the capacity to be in the up cycle. So this is a moment where we have won to show that the people who are listening to the [00:08:45] playbook around the across the Atlantic, that’s not us. That’s not all of us.
[00:08:51] Laurence Tubiana: That’s not what people, so we have to say that very simply. And second, uh, I think you have to, to really trust [00:09:00] people around you. Talk to them. Listen, listen, listen. And I think that creates a bond that finally will be the network that we’ll need at the definite time because we are in dangers. [00:09:15] Time we can lose.
[00:09:16] Laurence Tubiana: That’s true. But we can win.
Big Oil’s Aggression = Fear: The COP Anecdote and Why Optimism Is Rational
[00:09:18] Laurence Tubiana: And finally, I will give you a fantastic anecdote. I learned two days ago, a good friend of mine who is a Minister of climate in Germany where we were at COP 30, of course there the. All the oil and gas were dominating the conversation, and the minister of energy of Saudi Arabia told my friend, you know, we don’t want to block you.
[00:09:43] Laurence Tubiana: We are not agree with you. [00:09:45] We want to kill IMOs Maritime, the Carbon Tax in the Maritime. We want to block any reference to transition away from fossil fuel. In our conclusion at that cop, we want to ignore all this so. [00:10:00] But we will not block you. We want just to delay. And why? Because we know that at that moment, in Europe in particular, well, climate change is not high in the political agenda.
[00:10:12] Laurence Tubiana: So we can be very aggressive. Nobody will resist [00:10:15] really. We can, you know, throw out the missing regulation in Europe if we are good enough. And we have seen, unfortunately, so many, uh, US and European companies of oil and gas fighting against the reg regulation in [00:10:30] Europe with success until now. And then he said, but you know, it will come back and we, and if we block you, we will have enemies.
[00:10:40] Laurence Tubiana: And we. Next time we know that climate change will be [00:10:45] very high on your agenda and we want to be able to talk to you again. So you know, they see the cycle coming, so is that good? No. If the oil people see that there was a golden moment, but this golden moment will be. [00:11:00] The end. So we should be as optimist as they are.
[00:11:04] Laurence Tubiana: So that’s my, my anecdote.
[00:11:07] Maryam Pasha: Wonderful.
Wrap-Up
[00:11:11] Ben Hurst: Thanks for listening to this quickie.
[00:11:13] Maryam Pasha: This episode was created by our [00:11:15] superstar podcast team at Telex London. Until next time, stay
[00:11:18] Ben Hurst: curious.
